Jul 01, 2025

Commodity markets daily recap

Posted Jul 01, 2025 7:39 PM

By: NATHAN STUEDLE

GRAINS:

September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 3 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed unchanged, and November soybeans were up 1/4 cent. September KC wheat closed up 4 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 10 3/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 7 3/4 cents.

Grain and oilseed markets recovered from overnight losses to trade well off session lows, with price action following USDA clues given in Monday's Crop Progress report. For now, it would appear markets have moved past Monday's Acreage and Stocks data, with traders likely eager to see what the weather holds as spring crops prepare to enter a crucial period for development. Outside market influence on Tuesday was mixed, with energy markets quietly higher and stocks mixed to mostly higher. Headline news for Tuesday was the Senate passing President Trump's budget bill by a vote of 51-50, with Vice President Vance casting the deciding vote. The bill now returns to the House, where Senate revisions will be voted on.

LIVESTOCK:

Although the live cattle contracts did not react as drastically as the feeder cattle contracts to the USDA's announcement that some Mexican cattle imports will resume as early as July 5. The market still traded lower thanks to the bearish news. Still no cash cattle trade has developed. Asking prices are noted in the South at $225-plus, but are still not established in the North. Trade will likely be delayed for at least another day.

And just like that, the oxygen that seemed so bountiful in the feeder cattle complex has dried up as traders negatively reacted to the announcement that the US will begin to allow Mexican cattle Imports starting as soon as July 5. Nevertheless, the biggest concern that cattle producers have is how many cattle are now going to be allowed to cross the border? And how is that going to affect domestic prices? Unfortunately, time will have to answer those questions, but today's negative downturn is a psychological reaction to the announcement. The fact remains that even with Mexican feeder cattle imports, the US still will be short of feeder cattle, but the concern is that if imports flood the market, some of the upper echelon of the market could quickly disappear.

With cash prices lower and pork cutout values sharply lower, it comes as no real surprise that the lean hog complex is also traded no better than mixed into Tuesday's closing bell. Oddly enough today the biggest reason why the carcass price is lower is because the belly wass down $9.10 and the butt was down $6.69.

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