By: NATHAN STUEDLE
GRAINS:
September corn closed up 2 1/4 cents and December corn was up 3 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 2 cents and November soybeans were up 1 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 1/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.
FOR THE WEEK:
September corn closed up 14 cents and December corn was up 10 cents. August soybeans closed up 28 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 24 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 23 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was up 19 1/4 cents.
Grain and oilseed markets were mixed to mostly positive on Thursday. Markets closed moderately below daily highs amid technical resistance ahead of the long weekend, with traders not quite willing to extend bullish price bets to the next level with the nearby weather outlook still appearing mostly favorable for growing crops. At this point, the rally is primarily driven by short covering ahead of the holiday break, with no significant changes to the underlying fundamental picture for row crop markets. Meanwhile, investors and traders spent the session awaiting the final House of Representative vote on the 2025 Budget bill. The final vote was delayed but eventually the bill did pass just minutes after the close of trade for Thursday, sending the legislation to President Trump's desk by Independence Day.
LIVESTOCK:
It's refreshing to see the live cattle complex traded fully higher into Thursday's close, and to see the spot August contracts fully and confidently trading above the market's 40-day moving average. At this point, it seems safe to assume that traders feel as if the market has endured enough immediate pressure, but it will be imperative that fundamental support begins to improve early next week if traders are going to keep with their current upward trend. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the fed cash cattle will be able to trade higher as packers continue to build up supply around themselves, and at some point, boxed beef prices will likely break to fit the seasonal norm.
With the continued support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading higher, the feeder cattle market also traded fully higher into Thursday's close. It will be especially interesting to see if Superior's Week in the Rockies sale (which happens all of next week) will be as strong as the Corn Belt Classic was. From a demand perspective, buyers are still in desperate need of calves, but the concern at the back of cow-calf producers' minds is that some buyers could elect to see how aggressive an influx of Mexican feeder cattle imports is going to be. And if that will give them another avenue to buy from and at a cheaper price.
It's been a tough fundamental week for the lean hog complex. Couple the dip in consumer demand with this morning's lousy export report, and it's no surprise that the contracts were trading lower into Thursday's closing bell. In this morning's pork cutout report, no major declines were seen, but with most of the cuts trading lower, that was enough pressure to push the carcass price lower, too.
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