GRAINS:
March corn closed up 5 1/2 cents and May corn was up 6 cents. March soybeans closed up 20 cents and May soybeans were up 21 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 8 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 1/2 cents.
The soybean market continued to set a bullish tone across row-crop futures Thursday, following President Trump's comments on Wednesday that China may look to extend their old-crop purchase goal for U.S. soybeans by an additional 8 million metric tons (mmt) above the previous 12 mmt. There are obviously a lot of question marks regarding how feasible this is but for now the market is reflecting added demand potential with a 45-50 cent move over the past two sessions. Corn and wheat markets were able to join soybeans with higher prices as well on Thursday, despite being a little more subdued in their rallying efforts. Outside markets on Thursday were mostly a negative influence on ag futures, with lower energy markets after Iran and U.S. officials did agree to move forward with planned negotiations in Oman on Friday. The U.S. dollar was firmer for the fifth time in the past seven sessions, and equity markets moved lower as trade has turned sideways over the past month.
LIVESTOCK:
Live cattle futures quickly backed away from part of early week gains Thursday. Losses of $4 to $5 per cwt were seen at midday, creating some concern that additional sharp losses may continue to develop over the coming days. The news focus seems to be pointed to the processing reduction seen in the JBS Greeley plant based on reported impending strikes at the plant. The likelihood that this will have a major impact on overall industry processing capacity beyond a few days is limited given the current structure of the market and current overall company and industry availability. This industry is not beyond rerouting trucks to other plants or companies in order to sustain needs and capacity levels. But watching daily slaughter rates through the month of February will help give an indicator of overall capacity levels. Firm pressure in outside markets and weaker beef values cannot be downplayed in the hesitancy for futures buyers to step into a market which very well could have run out of oxygen at current price levels. Cash cattle markets are still sluggish with a few bids on the table in parts of Iowa, and a major packer has offered to "call in" for $378 in eastern Nebraska. Packer inquiry should continue to improve as the day progresses, but significant trade volume will likely be delayed until later today and/or Friday. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.82 ($367.20) and select down $1.08 ($361.01) with a movement of 48.79 loads (38.54 loads of choice, 4.14 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.11 loads of ground beef).
Feeder cattle futures were leading the market lower Thursday. This market move seems like a general reversal to early week buyer support that flooded the market during trade Monday and Tuesday. The news cycle focus in the market seems to be centered on the developing strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, but this move is likely much more focused on the ability to sustain additional buyer support at current price levels. Nearby futures have rallied nearly $70 per cwt since the November low, creating a generally unchecked upward market surge within the entire cattle market. This lack of small to moderate corrections can make any market vulnerable, including the cattle market which is focusing on tight supplies. In comparison to the wild shifts seen last fall, these swings seem generally tame. But it does create significant uncertainty given how lightly traded the feeder cattle market remains with generally light volume.
Lean hog futures had been the quiet market through the entire livestock complex Thursday. Spot February futures were leading the market lower with light pressure, while very narrow losses are seen through the rest of the contracts. The continued upward move higher in nearby futures since hitting seasonal lows in November have continued to move prices well above the 40-day moving average. Recent volatility in cattle trade seems to have lost its short-term impact on hog traders at this moment as traders continue to look for continued strong demand support as 2026 develops. At current price levels and comparative price relationships to beef, the pork industry seems well insulated to potential economic pressure that may develop over the coming weeks and months.