Nov 04, 2026

Democrat Fred Wellman ousts Republican Ann Wagner in Missouri congressional upset

Posted Nov 04, 2026 5:00 AM
Democrat Fred Wellman, who defeated U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, a seven-term Republican, to flip the 2nd Congressional District (photo submitted).
Democrat Fred Wellman, who defeated U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner, a seven-term Republican, to flip the 2nd Congressional District (photo submitted).

Republicans redrew the 2nd Congressional District to protect Wagner, but Wellman overcame a spending disadvantage to flip the seat for Democrats

BY:  RUDI KELLER
Missouri Independent

Republican lawmakers redrew Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District to make U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner’s seat safer. On Tuesday, Democrat Fred Wellman won it anyway.

Wellman, a retired military officer, was outspent by Wagner and her Republican allies. But he outraised her in the crucial final months of the campaign, making increasingly large ad buys as the election approached.

Wellman won his victory in St. Louis County, where he defeated Wagner by 14%. That was enough to cover Wagner’s majorities in Franklin, Warren and St. Charles counties, where Wellman cut deeply into Wagner’s margins from 2024.

In St. Charles County, where Wagner won by 16,000 votes in 2024, Wellman narrowed the margin to 4,000 votes. Overall, Wellman took 51.4% of the vote.

With the victory, Missouri will send a delegation of five Republicans and three Democrats to Washington in January. The loss compounds the GOP’s defeat in an effort to redraw district boundaries to flip the 5th District, a map change that would have put more rural Republican voters in Wagner’s district.

The 2nd District is the only one in Missouri that was listed at the start of 2025 as less than solidly safe for the incumbent party. Wagner won re-election in 2022 and 2024 with about 55% of the vote while other incumbents were winning with 60% or more.

In the two elections prior to redistricting for the 2020 census, Wagner had won with just 51% of the vote.

Wagner spent nearly $6 million defending her seat, including nearly $1.5 million on broadcast ads. Wagner’s allies from the Congressional Leadership Fund purchased $628,500 of broadcast ads attacking Wellmann and Protect our Family Values Action spent $220,000 backing Wagner.

Wellman raised $2.2 million and spent almost $500,000 on broadcast ads. He had independent support from VoteVets, which spent more than $500,000 in the district.

In Missouri’s other seven districts, voters retained the incumbent party. 

In northern Missouri’s 6th District, Republican nominee Chris Stigall will replace U.S. Rep. Sam Graves, a Tarkio Republican retiring after 26 years in Congress. Stigall defeated Democratic opponent Josh Smead and LIbertarian Andy Maidment, taking 66% of the vote

In the six districts with incumbents seeking re-election, the results are:

  1. U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell, a St. Louis Democrat, easily won reelection in the 1st District, covering St. Louis and part of St. Louis County. He defeated Paul Berry III, a Republican who never formed a campaign committee, with 82% of the vote.
  2. U.S. Rep. Bob Onder of Lake Saint Louis won his second term in the 3rd District, which runs from Central Missouri to St. Charles and Jefferson Counties. His margin narrowed in a  rematch of the 2024 contest against Democrat Bethany Mann of Saint Peters. Onder took 56% of the vote, compared to 61% in 2024.
  3. U.S. Rep. Mark Alford of Kansas City won his third term in the 4th District, which runs west from Central Missouri to the Kansas border and includes Whiteman Air Force Base and Fort Leonard Wood. Alford defeated Democratic nominee Jordan Herrera of Kansas City and Libertarian Thomas Holbrook of Warrensburg. Alford took 64% of the vote, down from his 71% share in 2024.
  4. U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver will become the senior member of the Missouri delegation with his easy re-election in the 5th District in Jackson and Clay counties. The Kansas City Democrat filed for re-election when it was uncertain whether he would have to run in a district drawn to elect a Republican. State Sen. Rick Brattin, who won the GOP nomination for the gerrymandered district, put up only a token effort in the district used on Tuesday as Cleaver took 69% of the vote, up more than 8 percentage points from 2024.
  5. The 7th District in southwest Missouri returned U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison, a Springfield Republican, to Washington for his third term. Burlison easily won a rematch with Democratic candidate Missi Hesketh of Forsyth, taking 69%
  6. The 8th District of Southeast Missouri was again won by U.S. Rep. Jason Smith, who defeated Chris Reichard, taking 68% of the vote.
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