The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. 

Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024. 

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024. -NAFB

USDA says farm sector profits to grow in 2025

As farmers prepare to harvest what may be a record-large soybean crop, their largest export customer has yet to make a buy. Without a deal with China, North Dakota farmers may not get a bid for their soybeans. According to North Dakota Soybean Council Chair Jim Thompson, the local cash market is pushing growers to store their beans. 

North Dakota Soybean Growers Association President Justin Sherlock says the trade dispute with China needs to end. “Maybe it’s getting an interim trade deal with a country like China so we have somewhere to just physically move and sell those soybeans,” said Sherlock. He said farmers want the export markets restored first. “We just need to get rid of the crop right now, then we can figure out where we’re at financially as we go into the winter months and loan renewal season.”

As farmers prepare to harvest what may be a record-large soybean crop, their largest export customer has yet to make a buy. Without a deal with China, North Dakota farmers may not get a bid for their soybeans. According to North Dakota Soybean Council Chair Jim Thompson, the local cash market is pushing growers to store their beans. North Dakota Soybean Growers Association President Justin Sherlock says the trade dispute with China needs to end. “Maybe it’s getting an interim trade deal with a country like China so we have somewhere to just physically move and sell those soybeans,” said Sherlock. He said farmers want the export markets restored first. “We just need to get rid of the crop right now, then we can figure out where we’re at financially as we go into the winter months and loan renewal season.”-NAFB

Soybean leaders see export window narrowing with China

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.

Ag futures and row crops specifically were generally on the lower side on Wednesday, but still within their recent trading ranges as traders aren't really looking to commit to big position swings ahead of USDA insight into the markets on Friday. Outside markets were mixed with energy futures higher after a fresh wave of geopolitical uncertainty after Poland reportedly shot down Russian drones in their airspace Tuesday night. Meanwhile, stock indices were mixed with the S&amp;P 500 surging to a new record amid a cool reading of the PPI Index on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for guiding rate decisions, leaving less doubt in investors' minds that the Fed will cut rates in their meeting next week.

The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded softly higher into Wednesday's closing bell as the market is recovering some position lost from Tuesday's meltdown. The spot October contract continues to trade slightly above the market's 40-day moving average ($229.74), which will be a threshold to continue to monitor. If traders let the contracts fall below that point, a downward trend will likely continue. A few bids are currently on the table at $236 in Kansas and $235 live and $375 dressed in Nebraska, but no new sales have been reported following Tuesday's business. On Tuesday afternoon, there was a thin movement in the North at $378, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but there weren't enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has been set for the week. Asking prices in the South are firm at $243 and in the North at $380.

The feeder cattle complex&nbsp;did not recover as much as the live cattle contracts, as only its nearby contracts traded higher while the deferred months continued to trade moderately lower. It seems as though Tuesday's sharp descent took the air out of the feeder cattle contracts, which is why they were slower to recover today.

The lean hog complex was chopping merely sideways as the market traders want to support the complex, but neither do they believe that they possess enough support to really push the contracts beyond the market's resistance. It is helpful that again this morning, the carcass price was higher, which is mainly because of the ham's $3.45 jump, and the belly's $2.71 gain.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/10150329/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and March corn was down 3 cents. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.Ag futures and row crops specifically were generally on the lower side on Wednesday, but still within their recent trading ranges as traders aren't really looking to commit to big position swings ahead of USDA insight into the markets on Friday. Outside markets were mixed with energy futures higher after a fresh wave of geopolitical uncertainty after Poland reportedly shot down Russian drones in their airspace Tuesday night. Meanwhile, stock indices were mixed with the S&amp;P 500 surging to a new record amid a cool reading of the PPI Index on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge for guiding rate decisions, leaving less doubt in investors' minds that the Fed will cut rates in their meeting next week.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded softly higher into Wednesday's closing bell as the market is recovering some position lost from Tuesday's meltdown. The spot October contract continues to trade slightly above the market's 40-day moving average ($229.74), which will be a threshold to continue to monitor. If traders let the contracts fall below that point, a downward trend will likely continue. A few bids are currently on the table at $236 in Kansas and $235 live and $375 dressed in Nebraska, but no new sales have been reported following Tuesday's business. On Tuesday afternoon, there was a thin movement in the North at $378, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but there weren't enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has been set for the week. Asking prices in the South are firm at $243 and in the North at $380.The feeder cattle complex&nbsp;did not recover as much as the live cattle contracts, as only its nearby contracts traded higher while the deferred months continued to trade moderately lower. It seems as though Tuesday's sharp descent took the air out of the feeder cattle contracts, which is why they were slower to recover today.The lean hog complex was chopping merely sideways as the market traders want to support the complex, but neither do they believe that they possess enough support to really push the contracts beyond the market's resistance. It is helpful that again this morning, the carcass price was higher, which is mainly because of the ham's $3.45 jump, and the belly's $2.71 gain.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/10150329/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Commodity markets daily recap

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend. Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. According to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year. 

The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer. 

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened further in July, highlighting the challenge facing President Donald Trump as he vows to reverse the trend. Agricultural exports lagged imports by $4.97 billion in July, a gap 9% wider than a year earlier and the largest on record for the month. According to data released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture That pushed the sector’s deficit to an unprecedented $33.6 billion for the first seven months of the year. The widening farm trade gap this year has been mostly driven by a jump in imports, just as Trump slapped tariffs on other countries in a push to shrink the overall deficit. That further cements a shift that has been building since the president’s first term, with a sector that has long run major trade surpluses becoming a consistent net importer. -NAFB

Ag trade deficit hit another record high in July

China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the U.S. — its second-largest supplier — drags on. Reports show that China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, purchased 12.3 million metric tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market. China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. 

The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on US shipments ahead of the export season that is expected to peak in the coming months. Abundant imports, mainly from Brazil, have left Chinese crushers better prepared for a winter possibly without US soybeans. China’s stockpiles of imported soybeans totaled about 6.8 million tons as of last Friday, nearly the highest amount since March.

China imported a record volume of soybeans for August to build a buffer against possible shortages as a protracted trade war with the U.S. — its second-largest supplier — drags on. Reports show that China, the world’s biggest soybean importer, purchased 12.3 million metric tons in August, the highest ever recorded for the month, shoring up local availability before U.S. supplies begin to dominate the global market. China has traditionally sourced a large share of its soybean imports from the US, but ongoing trade tensions have pushed it to favor Brazil. The recent purchases reflect a strategic move to reduce reliance on US shipments ahead of the export season that is expected to peak in the coming months. Abundant imports, mainly from Brazil, have left Chinese crushers better prepared for a winter possibly without US soybeans. China’s stockpiles of imported soybeans totaled about 6.8 million tons as of last Friday, nearly the highest amount since March.-NAFB

China soybean imports at record high in August, but not from U.S.

December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 cents. November soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 7 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.

Row crop futures were lower for the most part across the board on Tuesday, correcting from Monday's positive action as traders are really just sitting on their hands currently, waiting for USDA clues on Friday in terms of what to expect for the impending U.S. corn and soy harvests. Corn and soybean conditions fell again week over week, but it is somewhat normal to see some degree of decline ahead of harvest, and the cuts were not as large as some were expecting, which dampened bullish motivation somewhat for Tuesday. Outside markets on Tuesday were mixed and mostly quiet as well, with most of the attention going to the revisions lower in U.S. job creation stretching back to April 2024 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which in turn has investors waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will react in their meeting next week.

Tuesday was quite the tumultuous ride for the live cattle complex. At the day's initial start, the market was trading slightly lower, but as the morning progressed, traders exacerbated the day's decline to be one that was sharp and painful to watch, as most of the live cattle contracts traded $4.00 to $6.00 lower. And why, you ask? More than anything, today's move seemed to be triggered by technical nervousness, as traders continue to worry about the market's position and know that fundamental support could be slightly weaker for the next little while, as cash prices could be lower and seasonally boxed beef prices could decline as well. No developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market and aren't expected to until Wednesday or later this week.

Did you think Monday afternoon that come Tuesday, the feeder cattle complex would be trading limit lower in most of its contracts? I hate to speculate, but I think it's safe to say that most of us didn't foresee the cattle complex toppling down so aggressively, given that from a fundamental perspective, feeder cattle demand is incredible -- the CME feeder cattle index closed at $367.03 Monday afternoon. But what's important to keep in perspective here is that even though it's frustrating, and even though so many factors say that today's actions simply shouldn't be, traders don't have to obey sound logic, and not every move aligns with the reality of the countryside's fundamentals.

While the cattle complex fell flat on its face, the lean hog complex saw most of its contracts drift slightly lower, but not to the severe degree in which the cattle contracts were trading. More than anything, the slight pullback in the hog sector seems to be because traders are noting resistance pressure, and midday pork cutout values were lower, too.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/09140923/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 2 cents and March corn was down 2 cents. November soybeans closed down 2 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents. December KC wheat closed down 7 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.Row crop futures were lower for the most part across the board on Tuesday, correcting from Monday's positive action as traders are really just sitting on their hands currently, waiting for USDA clues on Friday in terms of what to expect for the impending U.S. corn and soy harvests. Corn and soybean conditions fell again week over week, but it is somewhat normal to see some degree of decline ahead of harvest, and the cuts were not as large as some were expecting, which dampened bullish motivation somewhat for Tuesday. Outside markets on Tuesday were mixed and mostly quiet as well, with most of the attention going to the revisions lower in U.S. job creation stretching back to April 2024 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which in turn has investors waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will react in their meeting next week.LIVESTOCK:Tuesday was quite the tumultuous ride for the live cattle complex. At the day's initial start, the market was trading slightly lower, but as the morning progressed, traders exacerbated the day's decline to be one that was sharp and painful to watch, as most of the live cattle contracts traded $4.00 to $6.00 lower. And why, you ask? More than anything, today's move seemed to be triggered by technical nervousness, as traders continue to worry about the market's position and know that fundamental support could be slightly weaker for the next little while, as cash prices could be lower and seasonally boxed beef prices could decline as well. No developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market and aren't expected to until Wednesday or later this week.Did you think Monday afternoon that come Tuesday, the feeder cattle complex would be trading limit lower in most of its contracts? I hate to speculate, but I think it's safe to say that most of us didn't foresee the cattle complex toppling down so aggressively, given that from a fundamental perspective, feeder cattle demand is incredible -- the CME feeder cattle index closed at $367.03 Monday afternoon. But what's important to keep in perspective here is that even though it's frustrating, and even though so many factors say that today's actions simply shouldn't be, traders don't have to obey sound logic, and not every move aligns with the reality of the countryside's fundamentals. While the cattle complex fell flat on its face, the lean hog complex saw most of its contracts drift slightly lower, but not to the severe degree in which the cattle contracts were trading. More than anything, the slight pullback in the hog sector seems to be because traders are noting resistance pressure, and midday pork cutout values were lower, too. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/09140923/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The California Legislature has approved a bill to authorize the immediate sale of E15, a gasoline blend with 15% ethanol, but the measure still needs the signature of Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose administration signaled strong opposition to advancing E15 ahead of a California Air Resources Board regulatory review. In testimony at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing last month on Assembly Bill 30, California Department of Finance officials labeled the bill as duplicative and unnecessary. 

A budget official pointed to the $2.3 million and 10 positions the Legislature approved this year for CARB to implement the new E15 standards, resources that will not be available until the agency completes its review. The administration’s opposition to AB 30 centers on new costs to the California Department of Food and Agriculture for enforcing petroleum product quality standards. Increasing fuel fees would run counter to the administration’s priority to lower gas prices.

The California Legislature has approved a bill to authorize the immediate sale of E15, a gasoline blend with 15% ethanol, but the measure still needs the signature of Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose administration signaled strong opposition to advancing E15 ahead of a California Air Resources Board regulatory review. In testimony at a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing last month on Assembly Bill 30, California Department of Finance officials labeled the bill as duplicative and unnecessary. A budget official pointed to the $2.3 million and 10 positions the Legislature approved this year for CARB to implement the new E15 standards, resources that will not be available until the agency completes its review. The administration’s opposition to AB 30 centers on new costs to the California Department of Food and Agriculture for enforcing petroleum product quality standards. Increasing fuel fees would run counter to the administration’s priority to lower gas prices.-NAFB

California E15 fate now in hands of Newsom, who opposed bill

On Monday the U.S. House passed a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program. The bipartisan United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act includes some updates to the existing law, which expires September 30th, that are aimed in part at promoting new technology.

 The bill would require USDA to prioritize the adoption of improved grain grading technology to enable the efficient, accurate, and consistent grading of grain, and the legislation would exempt equipment and technology costs from a 30% cap on administrative and supervisory expenses that may be incurred under the law. The cap is intended to limit the overall cost of the program. The president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association, Mike Seyfert, calls the legislation “a must-pass bill for the entire grain value chain.”

On Monday the U.S. House passed a five-year reauthorization of USDA’s grain inspection program. The bipartisan United States Grain Standards Reauthorization Act includes some updates to the existing law, which expires September 30th, that are aimed in part at promoting new technology. The bill would require USDA to prioritize the adoption of improved grain grading technology to enable the efficient, accurate, and consistent grading of grain, and the legislation would exempt equipment and technology costs from a 30% cap on administrative and supervisory expenses that may be incurred under the law. The cap is intended to limit the overall cost of the program. The president and CEO of the National Grain and Feed Association, Mike Seyfert, calls the legislation “a must-pass bill for the entire grain value chain.”-NAFB

House passes grain inspection extension

December corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and March corn was down 1 cent. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 6 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents.

December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents and March corn was down 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 27 cents. December KC wheat closed down 11 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 17 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 14 cents.

Agricultural markets were mostly calm Friday, and for the most part followed weekly trends into the close, featuring reversals off early session gains. Corn futures looked to be heading for a third positive session out of four tries this week before bears regained control by the last hour of trade. Meanwhile, soybean prices fell again following Thursday's impressive afternoon rally. Wheat markets remained limited in terms of upward momentum but were also able to stabilize following Thursday's ugly morning trade which sent prices to new lows. Outside markets to close the week were mostly a negative influence on agriculture, with another round of sluggish jobs data Friday morning sending equities lower and also weighing on energy markets. Also weighing on energies was Thursday's EIA inventory report which showed U.S. crude oil stocks higher week-over-week and year-over-year, as well as the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Treasury yields inched higher to close the week with the apparent slowing of the labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their meeting later this month.

The live cattle complex continued to etch lower and lower as the market isn't seeing the fundamental support it needs to convince traders that the market's direction should change. Following the trade that developed in the cash market on Thursday, no new cash cattle trade has surfaced thus far, and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business could be done with. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $242 to $243, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

And again today, the feeder cattle complex was following in the same direction as that of the live cattle market, as even though demand in the countryside remains historic, traders are waving their white flag for the time being and are fixated on working the contracts lower. As time moves closer and closer to the end of September/early October, it will be interesting to see the sheer volume of calves traded at sale barns as more cattle were moved earlier this year.

The momentum that's run with the lean hog complex for the vast majority of the week continued to sustain through Friday's session as the contracts kept trading higher. It is helpful that today, pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the $5.07 increase in the picnic and the $4.13 jump in the loin.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/05141849/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 1 3/4 cents and March corn was down 1 cent. November soybeans closed down 6 cents and January soybeans were down 6 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/4 cents.For the week:December corn closed down 2 1/4 cents and March corn was down 1 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 27 cents. December KC wheat closed down 11 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 17 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 14 cents.Agricultural markets were mostly calm Friday, and for the most part followed weekly trends into the close, featuring reversals off early session gains. Corn futures looked to be heading for a third positive session out of four tries this week before bears regained control by the last hour of trade. Meanwhile, soybean prices fell again following Thursday's impressive afternoon rally. Wheat markets remained limited in terms of upward momentum but were also able to stabilize following Thursday's ugly morning trade which sent prices to new lows. Outside markets to close the week were mostly a negative influence on agriculture, with another round of sluggish jobs data Friday morning sending equities lower and also weighing on energy markets. Also weighing on energies was Thursday's EIA inventory report which showed U.S. crude oil stocks higher week-over-week and year-over-year, as well as the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend. Treasury yields inched higher to close the week with the apparent slowing of the labor market, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in their meeting later this month.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex continued to etch lower and lower as the market isn't seeing the fundamental support it needs to convince traders that the market's direction should change. Following the trade that developed in the cash market on Thursday, no new cash cattle trade has surfaced thus far, and it's looking like the bulk of this week's business could be done with. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded anywhere from $242 to $243, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $383, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. And again today, the feeder cattle complex was following in the same direction as that of the live cattle market, as even though demand in the countryside remains historic, traders are waving their white flag for the time being and are fixated on working the contracts lower. As time moves closer and closer to the end of September/early October, it will be interesting to see the sheer volume of calves traded at sale barns as more cattle were moved earlier this year.The momentum that's run with the lean hog complex for the vast majority of the week continued to sustain through Friday's session as the contracts kept trading higher. It is helpful that today, pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the $5.07 increase in the picnic and the $4.13 jump in the loin.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/05141849/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded the California Senate’s passing of a bill that would allow the sale of E15, saying the state is much closer to cleaner fuel use. The Association said the bill moves on to the governor’s desk for approval. Last year, Governor Gavin Newsom said ethanol blends have massive potential and will lower gas prices while keeping the air clean. 

Researchers at the University of California-Berkeley and the U.S. Naval Academy said in a report that California consumers may see up to $2.7 billion in savings every year by having E15 available. California is the only state that doesn’t allow sales of the fuel blend. The analysis also finds that a unit increase in octane level results in a value premium of about 11 cents per gallon. California’s transition from E10 to E15 could save about 13 cents per gallon on average due to the lower carbon intensity of E15.&nbsp;

The Renewable Fuels Association applauded the California Senate’s passing of a bill that would allow the sale of E15, saying the state is much closer to cleaner fuel use. The Association said the bill moves on to the governor’s desk for approval. Last year, Governor Gavin Newsom said ethanol blends have massive potential and will lower gas prices while keeping the air clean. Researchers at the University of California-Berkeley and the U.S. Naval Academy said in a report that California consumers may see up to $2.7 billion in savings every year by having E15 available. California is the only state that doesn’t allow sales of the fuel blend. The analysis also finds that a unit increase in octane level results in a value premium of about 11 cents per gallon. California’s transition from E10 to E15 could save about 13 cents per gallon on average due to the lower carbon intensity of E15.&nbsp;-NAFB

California senate passes E15 bill

Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.&nbsp;

The USDA’s Economic Research Service says net cash farm income, defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses, is forecast to increase by $36.5 billion, or 25 percent, from 2024 to $180.7 billion in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars. U.S. net farm income is forecast to increase by $48.8 billion, or 37 percent, to $179.8 billion in 2025. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items like changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income. Most of the projected increase in 2025 corresponds with higher direct government payments to farmers, projected to increase from $10.4 billion in 2024 to $40.5 billion in 2025. The increase is expected largely because of supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance for farmers and ranchers from the American Relief Act of 2025, which authorized economic assistance payments to producers and payments for losses in 2023 and 2024.&nbsp;-NAFB

December corn closed up 1 3/4 cents and March corn was up 1 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.

The bearish start to September continued early Thursday before buyers stepped up by late morning, eventually turning soybean and corn futures slightly higher by the close. Meanwhile, wheat futures remain under heavy pressure but are quickly approaching long-term chart support. For now, with a lack of significant market-moving news traders are opting to trade seasonality, of which 5- and 10-year indices suggest a weak start to September while also suggesting the market may start feeling for a pre-harvest bottom over August and September as well. Outside markets were mixed on Thursday with energies mostly lower, but stock indices recovered from a sluggish restart to trade post Labor Day.

The mundane sideways to somewhat lower chop continued in the live cattle complex, as no further trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market, and traders remain concerned that the market could be overbought. Traders continued with their cautious tone throughout the day as the market didn't see anything wild and unexpected develop yet in terms of fundamental support, and even if the fed cash cattle market were able to trade a tick higher, there's a chance that traders could be numb to positive development. This morning, asking prices are around $244 to $245 in the South, but they are still not fully established in the North. There was a thin movement of cattle that sold yesterday afternoon at $242 in the South, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and some dressed trade was reported in the North at $383 to $385, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

In the feeder cattle complex, traders remain uncertain about the market's technical position, the downward trend continued to be the livestock market's theme thus far through Thursday's trade. And once again, this nervousness remains an issue for the market in terms of its position throughout the futures complex, but is not a concern in the countryside as feeder cattle continue to see incredible demand thanks to the continued interest of buyers.

Following Wednesday's sharp sell-off, the lean hog complex has again seemed to find some footing in the marketplace as it's back to trading higher. It's likely that the resistance pressure that caused the market to fall on Wednesday will be a limiting factor for the market any time soon unless fundamental support gains substantial ground and lends traders substantially more support.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 1 3/4 cents and March corn was up 1 1/2 cents. November soybeans closed up 1 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 1 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was down 2 1/2 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 2 3/4 cents.The bearish start to September continued early Thursday before buyers stepped up by late morning, eventually turning soybean and corn futures slightly higher by the close. Meanwhile, wheat futures remain under heavy pressure but are quickly approaching long-term chart support. For now, with a lack of significant market-moving news traders are opting to trade seasonality, of which 5- and 10-year indices suggest a weak start to September while also suggesting the market may start feeling for a pre-harvest bottom over August and September as well. Outside markets were mixed on Thursday with energies mostly lower, but stock indices recovered from a sluggish restart to trade post Labor Day.LIVE CATTLE:The mundane sideways to somewhat lower chop continued in the live cattle complex, as no further trade has developed in the fed cash cattle market, and traders remain concerned that the market could be overbought. Traders continued with their cautious tone throughout the day as the market didn't see anything wild and unexpected develop yet in terms of fundamental support, and even if the fed cash cattle market were able to trade a tick higher, there's a chance that traders could be numb to positive development. This morning, asking prices are around $244 to $245 in the South, but they are still not fully established in the North. There was a thin movement of cattle that sold yesterday afternoon at $242 in the South, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and some dressed trade was reported in the North at $383 to $385, which is $1.00 to $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average.In the feeder cattle complex, traders remain uncertain about the market's technical position, the downward trend continued to be the livestock market's theme thus far through Thursday's trade. And once again, this nervousness remains an issue for the market in terms of its position throughout the futures complex, but is not a concern in the countryside as feeder cattle continue to see incredible demand thanks to the continued interest of buyers. Following Wednesday's sharp sell-off, the lean hog complex has again seemed to find some footing in the marketplace as it's back to trading higher. It's likely that the resistance pressure that caused the market to fall on Wednesday will be a limiting factor for the market any time soon unless fundamental support gains substantial ground and lends traders substantially more support.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/04141832/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

 The USDA extended the public comment period for its controversial reorganization plan to September 30. Reports say, that doubles the length of time provided for input on an initiative that has drawn criticism from both Democrats and Republicans since it was unveiled last month. The agency originally released the plan for public comment on July 24 for a period of 30 days. A department webpage that earlier listed the deadline as August 31 now says September 30. 

A USDA spokesperson said the additional days in the comment period are to ensure everyone who wants to submit feedback can do so. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle criticized USDA over its rollout of the plan, which calls for relocating much of its Washington-area workforce to five regional hubs across the country. Senate Democrats sent a letter urging Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to extend the comment period by at least 60 days.

The USDA extended the public comment period for its controversial reorganization plan to September 30. Reports say, that doubles the length of time provided for input on an initiative that has drawn criticism from both Democrats and Republicans since it was unveiled last month. The agency originally released the plan for public comment on July 24 for a period of 30 days. A department webpage that earlier listed the deadline as August 31 now says September 30. A USDA spokesperson said the additional days in the comment period are to ensure everyone who wants to submit feedback can do so. Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle criticized USDA over its rollout of the plan, which calls for relocating much of its Washington-area workforce to five regional hubs across the country. Senate Democrats sent a letter urging Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to extend the comment period by at least 60 days.-NAFB

USDA extends reorganization public comment deadline to September 30

The National Pork Board has named David Newman the organization’s new CEO. Newman was recently the NPB’s senior vice president of market growth. “After a thorough and thoughtful nationwide executive search process, we have found an exceptional and dedicated leader in agriculture to take the organization representing America’s nearly 60,000 pork producers into the future,” said Gordon Spronk, President of the NPB. 

“David has proven himself to be leadership-oriented, producer-focused, and outcomes-driven when it comes to ensuring the pork industry is addressing the challenges and opportunities ahead of us.” Newman received a doctorate in meat and animal science from North Dakota State University. “It’s a privilege to work for and on behalf of pork producers,” Newman said. “We make a flavorful, nutritious product that’s beloved by millions of people across the globe.” He also said that the checkoff is doing a lot of work to drive demand from new consumers. 

The National Pork Board has named David Newman the organization’s new CEO. Newman was recently the NPB’s senior vice president of market growth. “After a thorough and thoughtful nationwide executive search process, we have found an exceptional and dedicated leader in agriculture to take the organization representing America’s nearly 60,000 pork producers into the future,” said Gordon Spronk, President of the NPB. “David has proven himself to be leadership-oriented, producer-focused, and outcomes-driven when it comes to ensuring the pork industry is addressing the challenges and opportunities ahead of us.” Newman received a doctorate in meat and animal science from North Dakota State University. “It’s a privilege to work for and on behalf of pork producers,” Newman said. “We make a flavorful, nutritious product that’s beloved by millions of people across the globe.” He also said that the checkoff is doing a lot of work to drive demand from new consumers. -NAFB

National Pork Board chooses a new CEO

December corn closed down 5 cents and March corn was down 4 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 9 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 6 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.

U.S. crop prices were under pressure again Wednesday following a prominent advisory firm unveiling the results of their August yield survey, similar to USDA and others which found corn and soybean yields both above trend. Despite a challenging August for weather in some areas and declining crop conditions in Tuesday's update from USDA, traders are currently seeing very little supply risk as 2025 harvest grows nearer each day. Outside markets on Wednesday were mixed, with equities again on the retreat from last week's highs ahead of what is typically a tough month of September. Meanwhile, energy markets were lower on rumors of another OPEC+ production increase coming in October, which weighed on soybean oil prices which headed to their sixth loss in the past seven sessions.

Live cattle futures moved lower during the session on Wednesday, although compared to the rest of the livestock market, the live cattle complex seemed to be hold the best of all markets. October futures were leading the downward shift in morning losses, but it is important to remember that just because prices are not continuing the aggressive rocket-like shift higher, this does not mean that the market is at or near its top. As of last week, traders continue to maintain a strong net long position in the cattle market in general, and specifically live cattle futures point to continued optimism and positive expectations for price levels in the days and weeks to come. More focus is shifting to the ability to continue to move wholesale and retail beef levels and maintain current or higher price levels now that the summer grilling season is wrapping up. Cash cattle activity has been sluggish once again, with a slow start to the day; bids and asking prices are not established.

Feeder cattle futures lead the market lower midweek, with triple-digit losses seen in all nearby and most deferred contract months. October futures posted the most aggressive pressure with prices over $2 per cwt lower at times during morning trade. The combination of widespread pressure in most ag markets and most commodity markets Wednesday is causing buyer apathy at this point. It is important to remember that a down day in the market does not indicate a lower-moving market in general, as the tone of the market still remains extremely aggressive with prices near all-time highs. Although it is never comfortable to watch, light to moderate corrections within a market are part of a healthy moving market, and many times are needed in order to draw additional buyers to the market over the coming days and weeks. Cash markets remain active with the USDA National feeder cattle summary released Tuesday reporting steers and heifers selling 5.00 to 10.00 higher compared to the previous week.

Lean hog futures were under pressure Wednesday, with outside market softness becoming a larger focus midweek in the hog complex. October futures continued to lead the market lower with triple-digit losses as traders continue to adjust to the current market shifts, with a portion becoming more aggressive in rolling to the December contracts. Even though prices have fluctuated over the past few weeks, and uncertainty about long-term export demand remains a significant concern, prices are still well above the 40-day moving average, which is helping add technical support to the entire complex.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed down 5 cents and March corn was down 4 3/4 cents. November soybeans closed down 9 1/2 cents and January soybeans were down 9 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 1 cent, December Chicago wheat was down 6 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was down 1 1/4 cents.U.S. crop prices were under pressure again Wednesday following a prominent advisory firm unveiling the results of their August yield survey, similar to USDA and others which found corn and soybean yields both above trend. Despite a challenging August for weather in some areas and declining crop conditions in Tuesday's update from USDA, traders are currently seeing very little supply risk as 2025 harvest grows nearer each day. Outside markets on Wednesday were mixed, with equities again on the retreat from last week's highs ahead of what is typically a tough month of September. Meanwhile, energy markets were lower on rumors of another OPEC+ production increase coming in October, which weighed on soybean oil prices which headed to their sixth loss in the past seven sessions.LIVESTOCK:Live cattle futures moved lower during the session on Wednesday, although compared to the rest of the livestock market, the live cattle complex seemed to be hold the best of all markets. October futures were leading the downward shift in morning losses, but it is important to remember that just because prices are not continuing the aggressive rocket-like shift higher, this does not mean that the market is at or near its top. As of last week, traders continue to maintain a strong net long position in the cattle market in general, and specifically live cattle futures point to continued optimism and positive expectations for price levels in the days and weeks to come. More focus is shifting to the ability to continue to move wholesale and retail beef levels and maintain current or higher price levels now that the summer grilling season is wrapping up. Cash cattle activity has been sluggish once again, with a slow start to the day; bids and asking prices are not established.Feeder cattle futures lead the market lower midweek, with triple-digit losses seen in all nearby and most deferred contract months. October futures posted the most aggressive pressure with prices over $2 per cwt lower at times during morning trade. The combination of widespread pressure in most ag markets and most commodity markets Wednesday is causing buyer apathy at this point. It is important to remember that a down day in the market does not indicate a lower-moving market in general, as the tone of the market still remains extremely aggressive with prices near all-time highs. Although it is never comfortable to watch, light to moderate corrections within a market are part of a healthy moving market, and many times are needed in order to draw additional buyers to the market over the coming days and weeks. Cash markets remain active with the USDA National feeder cattle summary released Tuesday reporting steers and heifers selling 5.00 to 10.00 higher compared to the previous week. Lean hog futures were under pressure Wednesday, with outside market softness becoming a larger focus midweek in the hog complex. October futures continued to lead the market lower with triple-digit losses as traders continue to adjust to the current market shifts, with a portion becoming more aggressive in rolling to the December contracts. Even though prices have fluctuated over the past few weeks, and uncertainty about long-term export demand remains a significant concern, prices are still well above the 40-day moving average, which is helping add technical support to the entire complex.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/09/03143843/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Farmer sentiment dipped for the third straight month in August. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 10 points to 125. Producers expressed less optimism about the future, as reflected in the Index of Future Expectations, which fell 16 points to 123. That’s the lowest reading for the futures index since last September. Producers’ perspectives on current conditions changed little during the month, with the Current Conditions Index rising two points from July to 129 in August. 

Sentiment differed greatly among producers according to whether their operations relied mostly on crops or livestock. Crop producers responded to the survey with much less optimism than their livestock counterparts, reflecting the profitability disparity between the two enterprises. Beef cattle operations, in particular, are experiencing record profitability, thanks in part to the smallest cattle inventory since 1951. This stands in sharp contrast to the returns for crop production, which have weakened significantly in 2025. 

Farmer sentiment dipped for the third straight month in August. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 10 points to 125. Producers expressed less optimism about the future, as reflected in the Index of Future Expectations, which fell 16 points to 123. That’s the lowest reading for the futures index since last September. Producers’ perspectives on current conditions changed little during the month, with the Current Conditions Index rising two points from July to 129 in August. Sentiment differed greatly among producers according to whether their operations relied mostly on crops or livestock. Crop producers responded to the survey with much less optimism than their livestock counterparts, reflecting the profitability disparity between the two enterprises. Beef cattle operations, in particular, are experiencing record profitability, thanks in part to the smallest cattle inventory since 1951. This stands in sharp contrast to the returns for crop production, which have weakened significantly in 2025. -NAFB

Farmer sentiment falls further in August

The U.S. ag trade deficit hit a record high in the first half of this year. Bloomberg said the value of agricultural exports trailed that of imports by $4.1 billion in June, a gap 14 percent wider than a year earlier. USDA data says that pushed the ag sector’s deficit to a staggering $28.6 billion for the first six months of this year. Reports say the trade deficit is one of the main reasons President Trump gave for imposing tariffs and working on new trade deals. 

Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber said that the trade imbalance shouldn’t be this alarming because of what’s under the surface. He said it’s important to keep in mind that America imports a lot of commodities it can’t produce domestically. The USDA numbers show that Mexico and Canada will remain the top two U.S. ag export markets, followed by the EU, Japan, and China.

The U.S. ag trade deficit hit a record high in the first half of this year. Bloomberg said the value of agricultural exports trailed that of imports by $4.1 billion in June, a gap 14 percent wider than a year earlier. USDA data says that pushed the ag sector’s deficit to a staggering $28.6 billion for the first six months of this year. Reports say the trade deficit is one of the main reasons President Trump gave for imposing tariffs and working on new trade deals. Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber said that the trade imbalance shouldn’t be this alarming because of what’s under the surface. He said it’s important to keep in mind that America imports a lot of commodities it can’t produce domestically. The USDA numbers show that Mexico and Canada will remain the top two U.S. ag export markets, followed by the EU, Japan, and China.-NAFB

Ag trade deficit hits all-time high in 2025

From disease to drought, the 2025 crop has been thrown a curveball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month. USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre.

 But southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network.

From disease to drought, the 2025 crop has been thrown a curveball late in the season. It’s also pushing the crop to maturity quicker. And with USDA currently projecting a record yield and crop, many analysts say the U.S. crop is likely going backwards in terms of yield, but that doesn’t necessarily mean USDA will cut yield projections next month. USDA’s August crop production report showed a record-high 2025/26 U.S. corn yield projection of 188.8 bushels per acre and a record-high soybean yield estimate at 53.6 bushels per acre. But southern rust could take a big bite out of the U.S. corn crop this year. The disease is causing turmoil for farmers who have a large crop in the making. In some cases, a Hail Mary fungicide application at R4 up to early dent (R5) might make sense this season, say agronomists. But in severe cases, the disease can wipe out 45% of the yield potential in a field, according to the Crop Protection Network.-NAFB

Is the U.S. corn and soybean crop getting smaller?

There's continued evidence that we may once again experience some low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River this fall. The prospects for restricted barge transportation this fall may come as a surprise for many given the healthy amounts of rainfall throughout much of the Midwest this spring and summer. However, the spigot has mostly been turned off throughout August – particularly in states that feed into the Ohio River, which feeds the Mississippi. 

According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 60% of the water volume on the Mississippi River south of Cairo, Illinois (where the Ohio River merges into the Mississippi River), is provided by the Ohio River.  As a result, low water volumes on the Ohio River will often translate to low water volumes on the lower Mississippi River.  The higher water levels at St. Louis reflect the amount of precipitation in the adjacent regions throughout the spring and summer, which was most beneficial.  

There's continued evidence that we may once again experience some low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River this fall. The prospects for restricted barge transportation this fall may come as a surprise for many given the healthy amounts of rainfall throughout much of the Midwest this spring and summer. However, the spigot has mostly been turned off throughout August – particularly in states that feed into the Ohio River, which feeds the Mississippi. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 60% of the water volume on the Mississippi River south of Cairo, Illinois (where the Ohio River merges into the Mississippi River), is provided by the Ohio River. As a result, low water volumes on the Ohio River will often translate to low water volumes on the lower Mississippi River. The higher water levels at St. Louis reflect the amount of precipitation in the adjacent regions throughout the spring and summer, which was most beneficial. -NAFB

Concerns over Mississippi River levels as harvest approaches

December corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and March corn was up 10 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 6 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents.

December corn closed up 8 3/4 cents and March corn was up 9 cents. November soybeans closed down 4 cents and January soybeans were down 4 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 13 1/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 7 3/4 cents.

Friday's trade featured month-end position-squaring as short-side traders raced to book profits while also avoiding the beginning of the delivery period for September futures contracts next week. The firm corn market offered support to soybean and wheat futures, both recovering from a sluggish start Friday to finish higher heading into the long weekend. In outside markets, equity markets relaxed into month end following three straight sessions higher. Energy markets were lower in a continuation of mixed trade overall through this week. Treasury yields were mostly lower as well as Personal Consumption Expenditure data on Friday morning showed that consumers in July remained avid spenders despite generally higher prices. The key inflation metric fell within expectations and the Federal Reserve is likely to have all the supporting features in place to cut its target rate by a quarter point in next month's meeting.

The live cattle complex got back to trading higher as traders are again finding support in the market's slightly higher cash cattle trade. It's unlikely that traders will challenge the market's resistance at $240 unless something wild and dramatic develops in the fed cash cattle market. But at this point, it's looking like some more trade could develop, but prices may hold steady with the week's trend. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $242, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $385, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average.

Following Thursday's lower close, the feeder cattle complex also got back to trading higher as traders are no longer up against immediate resistance levels. Demand in the countryside remains incredibly strong, so today's recovery in the futures sector is a move based upon continued support of the market's fundamentals and because the contracts are no longer teetering at resistance levels.

If the lean hog complex rounded out the day higher, and an incredible week for the market, as the contracts closed higher every day this week. And although pork cutout values were higher this morning, demand has been softer than usual, so this week's momentum in the marketplace has largely been driven by traders. The big change in the carcass price came because of the $14.23 jump in the belly and because of the $11.60 jump in the picnic.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 10 1/4 cents and March corn was up 10 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 6 1/2 cents and January soybeans were up 5 3/4 cents. December KC wheat closed up 4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 5 1/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 2 3/4 cents.For the Week:December corn closed up 8 3/4 cents and March corn was up 9 cents. November soybeans closed down 4 cents and January soybeans were down 4 1/2 cents. December KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 13 1/4 cents and December Minneapolis wheat was down 7 3/4 cents.Friday's trade featured month-end position-squaring as short-side traders raced to book profits while also avoiding the beginning of the delivery period for September futures contracts next week. The firm corn market offered support to soybean and wheat futures, both recovering from a sluggish start Friday to finish higher heading into the long weekend. In outside markets, equity markets relaxed into month end following three straight sessions higher. Energy markets were lower in a continuation of mixed trade overall through this week. Treasury yields were mostly lower as well as Personal Consumption Expenditure data on Friday morning showed that consumers in July remained avid spenders despite generally higher prices. The key inflation metric fell within expectations and the Federal Reserve is likely to have all the supporting features in place to cut its target rate by a quarter point in next month's meeting.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex got back to trading higher as traders are again finding support in the market's slightly higher cash cattle trade. It's unlikely that traders will challenge the market's resistance at $240 unless something wild and dramatic develops in the fed cash cattle market. But at this point, it's looking like some more trade could develop, but prices may hold steady with the week's trend. So far this week Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $242, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle have traded at mostly $385, which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Following Thursday's lower close, the feeder cattle complex also got back to trading higher as traders are no longer up against immediate resistance levels. Demand in the countryside remains incredibly strong, so today's recovery in the futures sector is a move based upon continued support of the market's fundamentals and because the contracts are no longer teetering at resistance levels.If the lean hog complex rounded out the day higher, and an incredible week for the market, as the contracts closed higher every day this week. And although pork cutout values were higher this morning, demand has been softer than usual, so this week's momentum in the marketplace has largely been driven by traders. The big change in the carcass price came because of the $14.23 jump in the belly and because of the $11.60 jump in the picnic.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/29151210/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Cases of New World screwworm infections in Mexico have climbed by more than 50 percent since July. As of August 17, reports show, Mexico has documented 5,086 cases of the flesh-eating screwworm in animals, a 53 percent rise from July, according to numbers released by the Mexican government. The updated numbers previously unavailable to the public show 649 currently active cases of screwworm infections. 

“That’s incredibly concerning,” said Neal Wilkins. He told reporters that a fifty percent increase in the number of cases from July to August, particularly in extreme heat, means that Mexico hasn’t gotten the parasite under control. An NCBA spokesman said the increase in the number of NWS cases shows that the New World screwworm is a very present and real threat. Reports say the increase in the number of reported cases likely comes from Mexican cattle producers more closely inspecting their cattle and reporting any suspicious wounds or pests.

Cases of New World screwworm infections in Mexico have climbed by more than 50 percent since July. As of August 17, reports show, Mexico has documented 5,086 cases of the flesh-eating screwworm in animals, a 53 percent rise from July, according to numbers released by the Mexican government. The updated numbers previously unavailable to the public show 649 currently active cases of screwworm infections. “That’s incredibly concerning,” said Neal Wilkins. He told reporters that a fifty percent increase in the number of cases from July to August, particularly in extreme heat, means that Mexico hasn’t gotten the parasite under control. An NCBA spokesman said the increase in the number of NWS cases shows that the New World screwworm is a very present and real threat. Reports say the increase in the number of reported cases likely comes from Mexican cattle producers more closely inspecting their cattle and reporting any suspicious wounds or pests.-NAFB

Over 50 percent rise in NWS cases in Mexico

For the sixth time this year, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral. That’s according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture or energy. The overall reading for August dropped to 48.1 after rising above growth-neutral to 50.6 in July and 51.9 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing neutral growth. 

Dr. Ernie Goss of Creighton University says “Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region,” and “Bank CEOs and chief loan officers expect almost one-fifth, or 20 percent, of grain farmers to experience negative cash flow for 2025.” As current prices for corn and soybeans are still below break-even, the majority of the state’s producers will struggle to show operational profitability.

For the sixth time this year, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral. That’s according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a ten-state region dependent on agriculture or energy. The overall reading for August dropped to 48.1 after rising above growth-neutral to 50.6 in July and 51.9 in June. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing neutral growth. Dr. Ernie Goss of Creighton University says “Weak agriculture commodity prices for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the ten-state region,” and “Bank CEOs and chief loan officers expect almost one-fifth, or 20 percent, of grain farmers to experience negative cash flow for 2025.” As current prices for corn and soybeans are still below break-even, the majority of the state’s producers will struggle to show operational profitability.-NAFB

Rural Mainstreet Index falls below growth neutral

December corn closed up 4 cents and March corn was up 4 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 1/2 cents and January soybeans were unchanged. December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 4 3/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.

Ag markets appeared to be on their way to a continuation of Wednesday's lower drift before buying interest picked up late in the session. Traders are displaying a bit of uncertainty on where to send prices next given on one hand the large supplies that appear to be coming this fall, but on the other hand a dry August which may very well have trimmed the top end off yield potential for the southern and eastern Grain Belt. Outside markets for Thursday were very quiet with equities moving cautiously higher, with the S&amp;P500 extending Wednesday's record move. Energy markets also reversed higher off a softer tone early Thursday in what has been an overall sideways week in that sector.

Following Wednesday's higher close, the live cattle complex traded lower at the closing bell as traders seem to be keeping the market on hold, waiting to see what else surfaces from a fundamental sense before they push the contracts any higher. Packer interest could improve at any moment, but for the time being, not a single bid is on the table. Asking prices are noted in the South at $245, but are still not established in the North. It's assumed that prices will trade steady if not a bit higher again this week as feedlot managers sit with enough leverage to simply roll their showlists over into next week if prices aren't what they want.

The live cattle contracts trading lower, had the feeder cattle complex change its direction as the market watched support erode and send the contracts tumbling. Feeder cattle demand remains utterly incredible, and with buyers showing no clear signs of slowing down, traders feel comfortable allowing the contracts to continue to trade as they will and follow the live cattle market into the red.

The lean hog complex is keeping with its upward trek and not seeming too phased by the market's resistance at $94.00. What's pretty incredible about traders' recent move is that they're doing it with little to no fundamental support. Although pork cutout values were a tick higher this morning, demand has been weaker this week, and it's looking like packers are mostly done buying the cash market, as prices couldn't be posted this morning because of confidentiality.

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By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:December corn closed up 4 cents and March corn was up 4 1/4 cents. November soybeans closed up 1/2 cents and January soybeans were unchanged. December KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, December Chicago wheat was up 4 3/4 cents, December Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.Ag markets appeared to be on their way to a continuation of Wednesday's lower drift before buying interest picked up late in the session. Traders are displaying a bit of uncertainty on where to send prices next given on one hand the large supplies that appear to be coming this fall, but on the other hand a dry August which may very well have trimmed the top end off yield potential for the southern and eastern Grain Belt. Outside markets for Thursday were very quiet with equities moving cautiously higher, with the S&amp;P500 extending Wednesday's record move. Energy markets also reversed higher off a softer tone early Thursday in what has been an overall sideways week in that sector.LIVESTOCK:Following Wednesday's higher close, the live cattle complex traded lower at the closing bell as traders seem to be keeping the market on hold, waiting to see what else surfaces from a fundamental sense before they push the contracts any higher. Packer interest could improve at any moment, but for the time being, not a single bid is on the table. Asking prices are noted in the South at $245, but are still not established in the North. It's assumed that prices will trade steady if not a bit higher again this week as feedlot managers sit with enough leverage to simply roll their showlists over into next week if prices aren't what they want.The live cattle contracts trading lower, had the feeder cattle complex change its direction as the market watched support erode and send the contracts tumbling. Feeder cattle demand remains utterly incredible, and with buyers showing no clear signs of slowing down, traders feel comfortable allowing the contracts to continue to trade as they will and follow the live cattle market into the red. The lean hog complex is keeping with its upward trek and not seeming too phased by the market's resistance at $94.00. What's pretty incredible about traders' recent move is that they're doing it with little to no fundamental support. Although pork cutout values were a tick higher this morning, demand has been weaker this week, and it's looking like packers are mostly done buying the cash market, as prices couldn't be posted this morning because of confidentiality.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/08/28145929/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The National Corn Growers Association issued a report saying corn prices have dropped about 50 percent since hitting a peak in 2022. However, the cost of production has declined only modestly, making the production of corn unprofitable. The group said despite the plunging prices, the cost of growing an acre of corn this year is down only 3.3 percent from when prices topped out in 2022. 

“This is particularly problematic for farmers trying to cash flow high production costs while the corn price has tanked,” NCGA said in the report. Production of the grain is set to reach 16.742 billion bushels on a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre in the 2025-2026 marketing year. The average cost to grow a bushel of corn this year is projected at approximately $4.75 a bushel, and USDA expects farmers to receive about $3.90 per bushel, resulting in an 85-cent per bushel loss. 

The National Corn Growers Association issued a report saying corn prices have dropped about 50 percent since hitting a peak in 2022. However, the cost of production has declined only modestly, making the production of corn unprofitable. The group said despite the plunging prices, the cost of growing an acre of corn this year is down only 3.3 percent from when prices topped out in 2022. “This is particularly problematic for farmers trying to cash flow high production costs while the corn price has tanked,” NCGA said in the report. Production of the grain is set to reach 16.742 billion bushels on a yield of 188.8 bushels per acre in the 2025-2026 marketing year. The average cost to grow a bushel of corn this year is projected at approximately $4.75 a bushel, and USDA expects farmers to receive about $3.90 per bushel, resulting in an 85-cent per bushel loss. -NAFB

NCGA: Corn is unprofitable at current price levels

The Maryland Department of Health said the patient with the first human infection of a travel-associated New World screwworm in the U.S. has recovered from the flesh-eating parasite. There was also no sign of transmission to other people or animals. The Health and Human Services Department said the disease was confirmed on August 4 in a person who traveled to El Salvador. The CDC then reported it on August 24 after a three-week delay.

R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard indicated that neither the CDC nor the USDA had disclosed the NWS detection to the public. Instead, one or both agencies had selectively notified only certain industry participants of the detection, thereby giving them insider information regarding an issue with potentially severe ramifications. Bullard says, “Independent U.S. livestock producers rely exclusively on the USDA to protect the health and safety of their livestock herds against the introduction of foreign pests.”

The Maryland Department of Health said the patient with the first human infection of a travel-associated New World screwworm in the U.S. has recovered from the flesh-eating parasite. There was also no sign of transmission to other people or animals. The Health and Human Services Department said the disease was confirmed on August 4 in a person who traveled to El Salvador. The CDC then reported it on August 24 after a three-week delay.R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard indicated that neither the CDC nor the USDA had disclosed the NWS detection to the public. Instead, one or both agencies had selectively notified only certain industry participants of the detection, thereby giving them insider information regarding an issue with potentially severe ramifications. Bullard says, “Independent U.S. livestock producers rely exclusively on the USDA to protect the health and safety of their livestock herds against the introduction of foreign pests.”-NAFB