Efforts by China to reduce its reliance on imported soybeans are raising questions about the long-term outlook for U.S. soybean exports, analysts say. China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has been encouraging lower soybean meal use in livestock feed and expanding domestic oilseed production. While imports remain high, any sustained reduction could have ripple effects across global markets. 

U.S. farmers rely heavily on export demand, with China historically accounting for a significant share of shipments. Analysts said even modest policy shifts in Beijing can influence prices received by American growers. Agricultural economists cautioned that China’s goals face practical limits, including feed efficiency and domestic supply constraints. Still, they said U.S. producers must monitor policy signals closely. Diversifying export markets and boosting domestic demand were cited as key strategies to reduce exposure to trade volatility.

Efforts by China to reduce its reliance on imported soybeans are raising questions about the long-term outlook for U.S. soybean exports, analysts say. China, the world’s largest soybean buyer, has been encouraging lower soybean meal use in livestock feed and expanding domestic oilseed production. While imports remain high, any sustained reduction could have ripple effects across global markets. U.S. farmers rely heavily on export demand, with China historically accounting for a significant share of shipments. Analysts said even modest policy shifts in Beijing can influence prices received by American growers. Agricultural economists cautioned that China’s goals face practical limits, including feed efficiency and domestic supply constraints. Still, they said U.S. producers must monitor policy signals closely. Diversifying export markets and boosting domestic demand were cited as key strategies to reduce exposure to trade volatility.-NAFB

China’s soybean strategy raises questions for U.S. farmers

March corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and May corn was down 2 3/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 1 cent and March soybeans were down 1 3/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cent, March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.

Corn, soy, and wheat markets were lower again on Friday, with the exception of Kansas City wheat futures, which mounted a comeback from early lows. Meanwhile, corn and soybean futures were ultimately unable to climb out of the bearish doldrums of the second holiday-shortened week, with relatively low volume behind the trade. Still, there were signs throughout the session of growing buying interest as prices approach medium- to long-term chart support in an otherwise slow news day. Outside markets were mixed to begin 2026, with weaker crude oil futures for the fifth time in the past six sessions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continued its winning streak to six straight sessions but remains lower over the past month in general. Equity markets were mostly higher on Friday, breaking the year-end profit-taking dip, which was the feature of Monday through Wednesday's trade.

It was a breakout day for the live cattle complex as the market shot above its 100-day moving average for the first time since late October. More than anything, it seems to be a combination of trade support mixed with the knowingness that demand is likely only going to get stronger through the first half of the year, with traders also noting the uptick in cash cattle prices today. A few dressed sales are being reported in Nebraska at $360, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Several majors in that state are also bidding $360, but those bids continue to be passed. A few bids are on the table in the South around $228 to $232, but they are being passed as they are below current asking prices of around $234. Packer inquiry should continue to improve.

The feeder cattle complex also sky-rocketed higher as traders noted the uptick in the live cattle complex and continue to be optimistic that the market is likely going to trade stronger and stronger through at least the first quarter of 2026. Feeder cattle sales next week will likely be stronger in the countryside as well.

The lean hog complex traded mixed into Friday's closing bell, as the nearby contracts dipped lower while the deferred contracts continued to trade higher. More than anything, traders seem reluctant to do much with the contract until its fundamentals improve. The projected lean hog index for 12/31/2025 is down $0.41 at $81.85, and the actual index for 12/30/2025 is up $0.01 at $82.26.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2026/01/02141100/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed down 2 3/4 cents and May corn was down 2 3/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 1 cent and March soybeans were down 1 3/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 1/2 cent, March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 1/4 cents.Corn, soy, and wheat markets were lower again on Friday, with the exception of Kansas City wheat futures, which mounted a comeback from early lows. Meanwhile, corn and soybean futures were ultimately unable to climb out of the bearish doldrums of the second holiday-shortened week, with relatively low volume behind the trade. Still, there were signs throughout the session of growing buying interest as prices approach medium- to long-term chart support in an otherwise slow news day. Outside markets were mixed to begin 2026, with weaker crude oil futures for the fifth time in the past six sessions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continued its winning streak to six straight sessions but remains lower over the past month in general. Equity markets were mostly higher on Friday, breaking the year-end profit-taking dip, which was the feature of Monday through Wednesday's trade.LIVESTOCK:It was a breakout day for the live cattle complex as the market shot above its 100-day moving average for the first time since late October. More than anything, it seems to be a combination of trade support mixed with the knowingness that demand is likely only going to get stronger through the first half of the year, with traders also noting the uptick in cash cattle prices today. A few dressed sales are being reported in Nebraska at $360, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Several majors in that state are also bidding $360, but those bids continue to be passed. A few bids are on the table in the South around $228 to $232, but they are being passed as they are below current asking prices of around $234. Packer inquiry should continue to improve.The feeder cattle complex also sky-rocketed higher as traders noted the uptick in the live cattle complex and continue to be optimistic that the market is likely going to trade stronger and stronger through at least the first quarter of 2026. Feeder cattle sales next week will likely be stronger in the countryside as well.The lean hog complex traded mixed into Friday's closing bell, as the nearby contracts dipped lower while the deferred contracts continued to trade higher. More than anything, traders seem reluctant to do much with the contract until its fundamentals improve. The projected lean hog index for 12/31/2025 is down $0.41 at $81.85, and the actual index for 12/30/2025 is up $0.01 at $82.26.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2026/01/02141100/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Commodity markets daily recap

State agriculture officials confirmed a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in a backyard flock of chickens and ducks in Dallas County, Iowa, marking the state’s latest detection of the virus. The Iowa Department of Agriculture said the affected birds were euthanized to prevent the spread of the disease, and quarantine measures were put in place around the premises. No commercial poultry facilities have been affected. 

Officials urged poultry owners to strengthen biosecurity practices, including limiting contact between domestic birds and wild waterfowl, which are known carriers of the virus. The detection comes as migratory birds move through the Midwest, increasing the risk of additional cases. While the virus poses little risk to the general public, it can be deadly to poultry and disruptive to farm operations. State and federal animal health officials continue monitoring flocks and working with producers to reduce the threat of further outbreaks.

State agriculture officials confirmed a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza in a backyard flock of chickens and ducks in Dallas County, Iowa, marking the state’s latest detection of the virus. The Iowa Department of Agriculture said the affected birds were euthanized to prevent the spread of the disease, and quarantine measures were put in place around the premises. No commercial poultry facilities have been affected. Officials urged poultry owners to strengthen biosecurity practices, including limiting contact between domestic birds and wild waterfowl, which are known carriers of the virus. The detection comes as migratory birds move through the Midwest, increasing the risk of additional cases. While the virus poses little risk to the general public, it can be deadly to poultry and disruptive to farm operations. State and federal animal health officials continue monitoring flocks and working with producers to reduce the threat of further outbreaks.-NAFB

Bird flu detected in Iowa backyard flock

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced earlier this week, a new slate of research priorities for 2026, focusing on farm profitability, climate resilience and food system innovation. USDA officials said upcoming competitive grants will emphasize soil health, water efficiency, pest and disease control, and technologies that help producers adapt to extreme weather. The priorities also include improving nutrition, food safety and rural economic development. Agriculture officials said the updated agenda reflects growing pressure on farmers from rising input costs, volatile markets and climate-related disruptions. 

Research investments, they said, are intended to deliver practical, science-based solutions producers can use on the ground. The plan will guide funding through USDA agencies such as the National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service. Farm groups welcomed the announcement, saying targeted research is critical to maintaining U.S. competitiveness and long-term sustainability across crop and livestock sectors.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced earlier this week, a new slate of research priorities for 2026, focusing on farm profitability, climate resilience and food system innovation. USDA officials said upcoming competitive grants will emphasize soil health, water efficiency, pest and disease control, and technologies that help producers adapt to extreme weather. The priorities also include improving nutrition, food safety and rural economic development. Agriculture officials said the updated agenda reflects growing pressure on farmers from rising input costs, volatile markets and climate-related disruptions. Research investments, they said, are intended to deliver practical, science-based solutions producers can use on the ground. The plan will guide funding through USDA agencies such as the National Institute of Food and Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service. Farm groups welcomed the announcement, saying targeted research is critical to maintaining U.S. competitiveness and long-term sustainability across crop and livestock sectors.-NAFB

USDA sets new research priorities for 2026

March corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.40 1/2 and May closed down 2 1/4 cents per bushel at $4.48 1/2. January soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents at $10.46 1/4 and March soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents at $10.62 1/4. March KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $5.22, March Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents at $5.10 3/4 and March Minneapolis wheat was down 0.01 cents at $5.785.

Corn and wheat continued to build on Monday's surprising weakness while soybeans traded both sides before fading and were unaffected by a new flash sale to China and rumors of more in the works. Soybean product markets were mixed in quiet trade.

Following Monday's weaker close, the live cattle complex was higher as traders remain optimistic about the year to come. As we know now more than ever, managing risk remains a critical part of the cattle business and volatility is always looming; but there's still much to be excited about in the cattle sector as the calendar looks ahead to 2026. Still no developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.82 ($348.51) and select up $0.06 ($345.68) with a movement of 93 loads (63.14 loads of choice, 11.25 loads of select, 9.65 loads of trim and 8.83 loads of ground beef).

Upon seeing the live cattle complex trading higher, the feeder cattle contracts have elected to up their game as most of the contracts were trading $2.00 to $3.00 higher into Tuesday's close. The market has plenty of upward potential as the contracts have already broken through the resistance at the 100-day moving average.

The lean hog complex was also higher as traders are no longer up against immediate resistance pressure and the contracts were feeling some spillover support from the cattle sectors' ambitious trade activity.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/30140107/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed down 1 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.40 1/2 and May closed down 2 1/4 cents per bushel at $4.48 1/2. January soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents at $10.46 1/4 and March soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents at $10.62 1/4. March KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents at $5.22, March Chicago wheat was down 2 1/4 cents at $5.10 3/4 and March Minneapolis wheat was down 0.01 cents at $5.785.Corn and wheat continued to build on Monday's surprising weakness while soybeans traded both sides before fading and were unaffected by a new flash sale to China and rumors of more in the works. Soybean product markets were mixed in quiet trade.LIVESTOCK:Following Monday's weaker close, the live cattle complex was higher as traders remain optimistic about the year to come. As we know now more than ever, managing risk remains a critical part of the cattle business and volatility is always looming; but there's still much to be excited about in the cattle sector as the calendar looks ahead to 2026. Still no developments have surfaced in the fed cash cattle market.Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.82 ($348.51) and select up $0.06 ($345.68) with a movement of 93 loads (63.14 loads of choice, 11.25 loads of select, 9.65 loads of trim and 8.83 loads of ground beef).Upon seeing the live cattle complex trading higher, the feeder cattle contracts have elected to up their game as most of the contracts were trading $2.00 to $3.00 higher into Tuesday's close. The market has plenty of upward potential as the contracts have already broken through the resistance at the 100-day moving average.The lean hog complex was also higher as traders are no longer up against immediate resistance pressure and the contracts were feeling some spillover support from the cattle sectors' ambitious trade activity. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/30140107/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Since 2020, AgriBusiness Global has developed a yearly forecast of key events likely to impact global agriculture and agribusiness in the year ahead. Among the top forecasts for 2026 are input prices staying flat or increasing as suppliers compete for farm purchases. They also said China’s economy will continue to be challenged as the country’s enormous pesticide manufacturing capacity continues to drive margin erosion globally. While this is a positive for end-users of crop inputs, profitability for the supply channel remains challenging. Agro-industry “stagflation” is expected to continue into next year. 

Flat global demand in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific nations is being driven by aging, shrinking populations, and in the U.S., especially, food consumption may drop because of the increasing use of obesity drugs and the Make America Healthy Again program. The energy outlook will remain positive, except where political taxes play a role. 

Since 2020, AgriBusiness Global has developed a yearly forecast of key events likely to impact global agriculture and agribusiness in the year ahead. Among the top forecasts for 2026 are input prices staying flat or increasing as suppliers compete for farm purchases. They also said China’s economy will continue to be challenged as the country’s enormous pesticide manufacturing capacity continues to drive margin erosion globally. While this is a positive for end-users of crop inputs, profitability for the supply channel remains challenging. Agro-industry “stagflation” is expected to continue into next year. Flat global demand in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific nations is being driven by aging, shrinking populations, and in the U.S., especially, food consumption may drop because of the increasing use of obesity drugs and the Make America Healthy Again program. The energy outlook will remain positive, except where political taxes play a role. -NAFB

Ag forecasts for 2026

The Federal Communications Commission recently blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components due to concerns that the foreign equipment is an unacceptable risk to U.S. national security. Reports said the technology is on the Commission’s “Covered List,” barring foreign drone manufacturers from receiving the FCC’s approval to sell new drone models for import or sale into the U.S. Reports say, the ban’s timing hurts as many farmers are financially struggling because of high production costs, which makes the precise application of crop protection products and fertilizers especially important. 

Most precision agriculture is increasingly accomplished through using drones. “Foreign-manufactured drones represent a significant majority of the agricultural drone market, and sudden restrictions on their use without sufficient domestic alternatives would add new financial burdens on already over-stressed farmers,” the American Soybean Association said in a statement. The FCC said the ban won’t ground the thousands of already deployed unmanned aircraft in the U.S.

The Federal Communications Commission recently blacklisted all new foreign-made drones and components due to concerns that the foreign equipment is an unacceptable risk to U.S. national security. Reports said the technology is on the Commission’s “Covered List,” barring foreign drone manufacturers from receiving the FCC’s approval to sell new drone models for import or sale into the U.S. Reports say, the ban’s timing hurts as many farmers are financially struggling because of high production costs, which makes the precise application of crop protection products and fertilizers especially important. Most precision agriculture is increasingly accomplished through using drones. “Foreign-manufactured drones represent a significant majority of the agricultural drone market, and sudden restrictions on their use without sufficient domestic alternatives would add new financial burdens on already over-stressed farmers,” the American Soybean Association said in a statement. The FCC said the ban won’t ground the thousands of already deployed unmanned aircraft in the U.S.-NAFB

Drone ban could impact farmers 

Corn futures were higher, with trade pressing back toward the next level of nearby resistance with flat to soft spread action in a quiet session into the break. Ethanol margins are seeing a little pressure from corn gains as unleaded remains at the lower end of the range. Basis will likely remain steady to softer into the holiday weeks.

Soybean futures were higher, with meal leading the product complex heading into the break as we continue to ease oversold conditions. South American weather looks to remain mostly good into the end of the months with key growing areas in the best shape. Basis will likely remain soft into the end of the year.

Wheat futures were higher, with winter wheats leading again as KC pushes back past nearby resistance this morning and Chicago gets closer to testing its resistance as well. Southern Hemisphere harvest will start heading to the homestretch soon. Weather for the Plains looks to cool a little from the weekend with short term moisture remaining limited. On the KC March chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.23, which we are consolidating above, with resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $5.40.

The live cattle complex is traded mostly lower into Wednesday's closing bell as traders had mostly checked out ahead of the holiday. And with the market's 100-day moving average still remaining a barrier, which the complex has yet to be able to challenge, a lower trend is most likely to remain the market's theme through the week's end. A few bids are currently on the table in the fed cash cattle market, but nothing sizeable has developed following Tuesday's light trade. On Tuesday, there was some light trade noted in the North at $356 to $357, which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and some Southern live cattle traded at $229, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some light clean up trade could happen between now and Friday, but this week's trade isn't expected to amount to much.

While the live cattle complex traded mostly lower, the feeder cattle contracts moved the opposite direction of the live cattle market and traded mostly higher for the bulk of the session but faded to end narrowly mixed into the day's closing bell. It's quite impressive that the feeder cattle complex has been able to maintain its position above the market's 100-day moving average without much support from the live cattle complex.

The lean hog complex was again trading lower into Wednesday's close, after seeing the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and with the holiday sluggishness setting in. It's likely that the market will look for reassurance fundamentally again before it challenges the resistance at $90.00.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/24124738/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:Corn futures were higher, with trade pressing back toward the next level of nearby resistance with flat to soft spread action in a quiet session into the break. Ethanol margins are seeing a little pressure from corn gains as unleaded remains at the lower end of the range. Basis will likely remain steady to softer into the holiday weeks. Soybean futures were higher, with meal leading the product complex heading into the break as we continue to ease oversold conditions. South American weather looks to remain mostly good into the end of the months with key growing areas in the best shape. Basis will likely remain soft into the end of the year. Wheat futures were higher, with winter wheats leading again as KC pushes back past nearby resistance this morning and Chicago gets closer to testing its resistance as well. Southern Hemisphere harvest will start heading to the homestretch soon. Weather for the Plains looks to cool a little from the weekend with short term moisture remaining limited. On the KC March chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $5.23, which we are consolidating above, with resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $5.40.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex is traded mostly lower into Wednesday's closing bell as traders had mostly checked out ahead of the holiday. And with the market's 100-day moving average still remaining a barrier, which the complex has yet to be able to challenge, a lower trend is most likely to remain the market's theme through the week's end. A few bids are currently on the table in the fed cash cattle market, but nothing sizeable has developed following Tuesday's light trade. On Tuesday, there was some light trade noted in the North at $356 to $357, which is steady to $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and some Southern live cattle traded at $229, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some light clean up trade could happen between now and Friday, but this week's trade isn't expected to amount to much.While the live cattle complex traded mostly lower, the feeder cattle contracts moved the opposite direction of the live cattle market and traded mostly higher for the bulk of the session but faded to end narrowly mixed into the day's closing bell. It's quite impressive that the feeder cattle complex has been able to maintain its position above the market's 100-day moving average without much support from the live cattle complex.The lean hog complex was again trading lower into Wednesday's close, after seeing the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and with the holiday sluggishness setting in. It's likely that the market will look for reassurance fundamentally again before it challenges the resistance at $90.00.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/24124738/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

Commodity market daily recap

Congressional Republicans plan to revive stalled farm bill negotiations in January after failing to pass a new measure by year’s end, extending uncertainty for farmers facing high costs, inflation and trade disruptions. House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson said he hopes to schedule a committee markup ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline, though he acknowledged it may be difficult to attach the bill to must-pass spending legislation. The delay means Congress will enter a third year without updating major agriculture policy. Lawmakers remain divided over whether a traditional five-year farm bill is still achievable. 

Thompson and Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman say progress remains possible, even in an election year. But some policy experts are skeptical, noting recent budget legislation sharply expanded farm subsidies while cutting food assistance, weakening the longstanding political link between the two. Congress extended the 2018 farm bill for another year in November, giving lawmakers until Sept. 30, 2026, to enact a replacement.

Congressional Republicans plan to revive stalled farm bill negotiations in January after failing to pass a new measure by year’s end, extending uncertainty for farmers facing high costs, inflation and trade disruptions. House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson said he hopes to schedule a committee markup ahead of a Jan. 30 funding deadline, though he acknowledged it may be difficult to attach the bill to must-pass spending legislation. The delay means Congress will enter a third year without updating major agriculture policy. Lawmakers remain divided over whether a traditional five-year farm bill is still achievable. Thompson and Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman say progress remains possible, even in an election year. But some policy experts are skeptical, noting recent budget legislation sharply expanded farm subsidies while cutting food assistance, weakening the longstanding political link between the two. Congress extended the 2018 farm bill for another year in November, giving lawmakers until Sept. 30, 2026, to enact a replacement.-NAFB

Lawmakers divided on whether farm bill can be passed in 2026

Two railroad companies submitted a comprehensive application to the Surface Transportation Board requesting approval to combine two major freight railroads into what would be the first transcontinental railroad in America. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed the request late last week, representing what could be a landmark development in the U.S. They’re proposing to create a unified rail network across the nation from coast to coast. 

Reports say that the almost 7,000-page application gives a specific explanation on how the combination would enhance competition throughout the freight industry while delivering public benefits to their customers, employees, and communities across the country. The merger agreement, which outlines that Union Pacific is acquiring Norfolk Southern, was put in place on July 29, 2025, setting the stage for the regulatory application. The move isn’t without critics, as it has drawn opposition from trade groups, unions representing engineers and track workers, and rival carrier BNSF.

Two railroad companies submitted a comprehensive application to the Surface Transportation Board requesting approval to combine two major freight railroads into what would be the first transcontinental railroad in America. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern filed the request late last week, representing what could be a landmark development in the U.S. They’re proposing to create a unified rail network across the nation from coast to coast. Reports say that the almost 7,000-page application gives a specific explanation on how the combination would enhance competition throughout the freight industry while delivering public benefits to their customers, employees, and communities across the country. The merger agreement, which outlines that Union Pacific is acquiring Norfolk Southern, was put in place on July 29, 2025, setting the stage for the regulatory application. The move isn’t without critics, as it has drawn opposition from trade groups, unions representing engineers and track workers, and rival carrier BNSF.-NAFB

Historic rail merger application filed

March corn closed up 1/2 cent and May corn was up 1 cent. January soybeans closed down 1 3/4 cents and March soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.

Tuesday was, as expected, another very quiet session across row-crop futures, with markets falling from early day gains amid a lack of volume required to build momentum to break through technical ceilings. Another round of solid export data from USDA, this time for the week ended Dec. 11 offered some strength, which was countered by at least a temporary unwinding of some of the surge seen in vegetable oil markets on Monday, specifically canola and soybean oil. Palm oil futures in the meanwhile remained sharply higher. Outside markets for Tuesday saw higher equity markets after U.S. third quarter GDP was reported well above expectations and the highest quarterly growth for the U.S. economy at annual rate of 4.3%. Energy markets were mixed to higher as well.

To no one's real surprise, following Monday's stronger trade, the live cattle complex was back to trading lower as the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average remains a difficult barrier to conquer. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's volume will likely be rather thin given that it's the week of Christmas and packers will run reduced kill schedules both this week and next. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $3.04 ($359.83) and select up $1.18 ($351.87) with a movement of 58 loads (38.91 loads of choice, 4.72 loads of select, 5.32 loads of trim and 8.78 loads of ground beef).

The feeder cattle complex also traded lower, again seeming to follow the direction of the live cattle complex closely. But even with the market's slight downturn, the spot March contract is still currently trading above its 100-day moving average.

The lean hog complex was rallying into Tuesday's close, waiting for the highly anticipated Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be shared later this afternoon. The nearby April contract is currently trading above the market's resistance threshold at $90.00, which was a significant move this morning.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/23140213/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed up 1/2 cent and May corn was up 1 cent. January soybeans closed down 1 3/4 cents and March soybeans were down 1 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cents.Tuesday was, as expected, another very quiet session across row-crop futures, with markets falling from early day gains amid a lack of volume required to build momentum to break through technical ceilings. Another round of solid export data from USDA, this time for the week ended Dec. 11 offered some strength, which was countered by at least a temporary unwinding of some of the surge seen in vegetable oil markets on Monday, specifically canola and soybean oil. Palm oil futures in the meanwhile remained sharply higher. Outside markets for Tuesday saw higher equity markets after U.S. third quarter GDP was reported well above expectations and the highest quarterly growth for the U.S. economy at annual rate of 4.3%. Energy markets were mixed to higher as well.LIVESTOCK:To no one's real surprise, following Monday's stronger trade, the live cattle complex was back to trading lower as the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average remains a difficult barrier to conquer. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and the week's volume will likely be rather thin given that it's the week of Christmas and packers will run reduced kill schedules both this week and next. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $3.04 ($359.83) and select up $1.18 ($351.87) with a movement of 58 loads (38.91 loads of choice, 4.72 loads of select, 5.32 loads of trim and 8.78 loads of ground beef).The feeder cattle complex also traded lower, again seeming to follow the direction of the live cattle complex closely. But even with the market's slight downturn, the spot March contract is still currently trading above its 100-day moving average.The lean hog complex was rallying into Tuesday's close, waiting for the highly anticipated Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report to be shared later this afternoon. The nearby April contract is currently trading above the market's resistance threshold at $90.00, which was a significant move this morning. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/23140213/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Department of Agriculture does not plan to issue additional emergency farm aid beyond the recently announced $12 billion assistance package, even as financial stress deepens across the farm sector, said Richard Fordyce, USDA's undersecretary for farm production and conservation. The payments are intended to help producers cope with low commodity prices, elevated production costs and reduced export demand tied to ongoing trade tensions. But economists and farm advocates warn many operations may continue to struggle without further support or stronger export growth. 

U.S. agriculture has traditionally posted trade surpluses, but rising imports and slowing exports have pushed the sector into a widening trade deficit. That shift has weighed heavily on farm income, particularly for row-crop producers dependent on foreign markets. USDA officials say budget constraints and existing authorities limit the department’s ability to offer more aid in the near term. Many farmers, however, say long-term relief will depend less on direct payments and more on expanded trade opportunities.

The Department of Agriculture does not plan to issue additional emergency farm aid beyond the recently announced $12 billion assistance package, even as financial stress deepens across the farm sector, said Richard Fordyce, USDA's undersecretary for farm production and conservation. The payments are intended to help producers cope with low commodity prices, elevated production costs and reduced export demand tied to ongoing trade tensions. But economists and farm advocates warn many operations may continue to struggle without further support or stronger export growth. U.S. agriculture has traditionally posted trade surpluses, but rising imports and slowing exports have pushed the sector into a widening trade deficit. That shift has weighed heavily on farm income, particularly for row-crop producers dependent on foreign markets. USDA officials say budget constraints and existing authorities limit the department’s ability to offer more aid in the near term. Many farmers, however, say long-term relief will depend less on direct payments and more on expanded trade opportunities.-NAFB

USDA signals no additional farm aid beyond $12B Package

A new USDA labeling rule takes effect Jan. 1, tightening standards for when meat, poultry and egg products may be identified as a product of the United States. Under the regulation, finalized in March 2024, companies may use labels such as “Product of USA” or “Made in USA” only if the animals were born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States. Meat from animals imported live for feeding or processing no longer qualifies.

 Products that are minimally processed may use qualified claims, such as noting they were sliced or packaged domestically using imported meat. The rule does not require companies to use U.S.-origin labels, but any firm that does must maintain records supporting the claim. USDA will generically approve labels without additional verification programs. The regulation applies only to domestic sales, not exports. Critics warn it could strain trade ties, particularly with Canada and Mexico, and discourage imports of live animals.

A new USDA labeling rule takes effect Jan. 1, tightening standards for when meat, poultry and egg products may be identified as a product of the United States. Under the regulation, finalized in March 2024, companies may use labels such as “Product of USA” or “Made in USA” only if the animals were born, raised, slaughtered and processed in the United States. Meat from animals imported live for feeding or processing no longer qualifies. Products that are minimally processed may use qualified claims, such as noting they were sliced or packaged domestically using imported meat. The rule does not require companies to use U.S.-origin labels, but any firm that does must maintain records supporting the claim. USDA will generically approve labels without additional verification programs. The regulation applies only to domestic sales, not exports. Critics warn it could strain trade ties, particularly with Canada and Mexico, and discourage imports of live animals.-NAFB

'Product of USA' meat labeling rule takes effect Jan. 1

March corn closed up 3 1/4 cents and May corn was up 3 cents. January soybeans closed up 4 cents and March soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 1 cent.

With the winter season officially underway, row crops kicked off Christmas week with a subdued trading session which saw mostly higher prices. Higher energy futures were the primary bullish driver for Monday with crude oil futures up for a fourth consecutive session and after hitting almost five-year lows last week, on renewed geopolitical risk premium as the U.S. has seized two Venezuelan oil tankers and is reportedly pursuing a third to start the week. Also adding to the unease is heightened Russian attacks on key Ukrainian export infrastructure, at least temporarily giving pause to what had been growing hopes for peace in that area. This gave a boost to vegetable oil markets to start the week, with soybean oil posting just the third positive session out of the past ten.

Following last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report and somewhat bullish fed cash cattle trade, the live cattle contracts traded higher into Monday's closing bell and are again trading alongside the market's 100-day moving average. Traders would like to conquer that threshold, but without knowing for sure how much fundamental support is going to remain in the market, given that it will be a holiday-shortened week both this week and next, traders remain cautious about breaking through that barrier right now. It is helpful to note boxed beef prices were higher again today, showing ample consumer support heading into the Christmas holiday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 to $358, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $228, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

Today is the first chance that traders have had to fully react to Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report, and they boldly continued to push the feeder cattle contracts higher, incrementally moving the contracts past the 100-day moving average. Given the strong note of higher boxed beef prices this morning, and the higher trend in the live cattle contracts, it's likely that the market will be able to maintain this rally through the day's close.

The lean hog contracts traded slightly higher into Monday's close as traders are hopeful that more support will develop and allow the contracts to trade above the resistance at $90.00. Do note that on Tuesday (tomorrow), the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/22140141/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed up 3 1/4 cents and May corn was up 3 cents. January soybeans closed up 4 cents and March soybeans were up 5 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed up 6 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 5 3/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 1 cent.With the winter season officially underway, row crops kicked off Christmas week with a subdued trading session which saw mostly higher prices. Higher energy futures were the primary bullish driver for Monday with crude oil futures up for a fourth consecutive session and after hitting almost five-year lows last week, on renewed geopolitical risk premium as the U.S. has seized two Venezuelan oil tankers and is reportedly pursuing a third to start the week. Also adding to the unease is heightened Russian attacks on key Ukrainian export infrastructure, at least temporarily giving pause to what had been growing hopes for peace in that area. This gave a boost to vegetable oil markets to start the week, with soybean oil posting just the third positive session out of the past ten.LIVESTOCK:Following last week's bullish Cattle on Feed report and somewhat bullish fed cash cattle trade, the live cattle contracts traded higher into Monday's closing bell and are again trading alongside the market's 100-day moving average. Traders would like to conquer that threshold, but without knowing for sure how much fundamental support is going to remain in the market, given that it will be a holiday-shortened week both this week and next, traders remain cautious about breaking through that barrier right now. It is helpful to note boxed beef prices were higher again today, showing ample consumer support heading into the Christmas holiday. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Texas and Kansas, but lower in Nebraska/Colorado. Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $355 to $358, which is $2.00 to $4.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded at mostly $228, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.Today is the first chance that traders have had to fully react to Friday's bullish Cattle on Feed report, and they boldly continued to push the feeder cattle contracts higher, incrementally moving the contracts past the 100-day moving average. Given the strong note of higher boxed beef prices this morning, and the higher trend in the live cattle contracts, it's likely that the market will be able to maintain this rally through the day's close.The lean hog contracts traded slightly higher into Monday's close as traders are hopeful that more support will develop and allow the contracts to trade above the resistance at $90.00. Do note that on Tuesday (tomorrow), the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/22140141/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

USDA has approved stricter limits on what Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program recipients can buy, with changes set to take effect in 2026 in multiple states. Under the waivers, states can redefine “food for purchase” to exclude items such as candy, soda, energy drinks and other products deemed unhealthy. Six states — including Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia — received USDA approval this week, joining others that have already adopted similar rules under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. 

Federal officials, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins, say the changes aim to align SNAP with nutritional goals and reduce diet-related chronic illnesses. Implementation details will vary by state, with some plans already targeting specific categories like sugary beverages. The effort has sparked debate among advocates and critics over the balance between nutritional policy and food access for low-income households.

USDA has approved stricter limits on what Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program recipients can buy, with changes set to take effect in 2026 in multiple states. Under the waivers, states can redefine “food for purchase” to exclude items such as candy, soda, energy drinks and other products deemed unhealthy. Six states — including Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia — received USDA approval this week, joining others that have already adopted similar rules under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Federal officials, including Agriculture Secretary Brooke L. Rollins, say the changes aim to align SNAP with nutritional goals and reduce diet-related chronic illnesses. Implementation details will vary by state, with some plans already targeting specific categories like sugary beverages. The effort has sparked debate among advocates and critics over the balance between nutritional policy and food access for low-income households.-NAFB

SNAP purchase limits approved for 2026

Leaders of the House Agriculture Committee say Congress may need to step in with at least $10 billion in additional aid for U.S. farmers, beyond the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program recently announced by the Trump administration. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, said the administration’s program, while helpful, does not go far enough to support all sectors of agriculture. The current package is largely aimed at row crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, with about $1 billion set aside for other commodities. 

Thompson said industries including dairy, timber and specialty crops may require further assistance to help producers secure credit and remain viable into 2026. He emphasized that any supplemental aid should stabilize farms without replacing market forces. Meanwhile, USDA Undersecretary Richard Fordyce said budget constraints make a second aid package from the agency unlikely, leaving Congress as the primary option for more support. Senate Agriculture Committee leaders said they are waiting to see how far the current funds go before committing to a specific amount of additional aid.

Leaders of the House Agriculture Committee say Congress may need to step in with at least $10 billion in additional aid for U.S. farmers, beyond the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance Program recently announced by the Trump administration. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, said the administration’s program, while helpful, does not go far enough to support all sectors of agriculture. The current package is largely aimed at row crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat, with about $1 billion set aside for other commodities. Thompson said industries including dairy, timber and specialty crops may require further assistance to help producers secure credit and remain viable into 2026. He emphasized that any supplemental aid should stabilize farms without replacing market forces. Meanwhile, USDA Undersecretary Richard Fordyce said budget constraints make a second aid package from the agency unlikely, leaving Congress as the primary option for more support. Senate Agriculture Committee leaders said they are waiting to see how far the current funds go before committing to a specific amount of additional aid.-NAFB

Lawmakers propose additional aid for farmers

March corn closed down 3/4 cents and May corn was down 3/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 3 cents and March soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 cents.

March corn closed up 3 cents and March corn was up 2 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 27 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 19 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 1/4 cents.

Row-crop futures were mostly moderately lower to close the week, with little fresh news to break the fall in soybean futures or encourage corn traders to challenge nearby price resistance. In outside markets, energy futures were mixed with higher crude oil and gasoline futures but sluggish diesel prices, which contributed to the pressure on oilseed markets to close the week. Equity markets were higher in quiet trade, with a higher U.S. Dollar Index as well for the third straight session.

Things were heating up in the cattle complex as the live cattle contracts were again pressing up against the market's 100-day moving average. Traders are seeming to hold their breath, patiently waiting to see what's going to develop in the Southern Plains as still no cattle have traded in that region. Bids are on the table in Kansas at $227, which is far below the asking price of $232 to $233, and asking prices in the North are holding steady at $358-plus. There was a light movement of trade in Nebraska at $358 Thursday afternoon, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.61 ($360.89) and select up $3.57 ($347.54) with a movement of 69 loads (43.73 loads of choice, 8.34 loads of select, 11.09 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).

The feeder cattle complex pushed a dynamite rally into Friday's closing bell, as contracts were trading anywhere from $5.00 $6.00 higher. The spot March contract is currently trading above its 100-day moving average, seeming to feel well supported since the live cattle contracts are higher, fed cash cattle prices are stronger this week, and hopeful this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report will be bullish too. Time will tell.

The lean hog complex was back to trading higher as traders seemed to have regained some faith in the market but are also feeling additionally supported by the day's slight uptick in pork cutouts. It's unlikely the market will challenge resistance at $90.00, but a steady tone could be maintained through the early parts of next week.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/19140646/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed down 3/4 cents and May corn was down 3/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 3 cents and March soybeans were down 2 1/2 cents. March KC wheat closed down 1 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 5 cents.For the Week:March corn closed up 3 cents and March corn was up 2 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed down 27 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 27 1/4 cents. March KC wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 19 1/2 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was up 2 1/4 cents.Row-crop futures were mostly moderately lower to close the week, with little fresh news to break the fall in soybean futures or encourage corn traders to challenge nearby price resistance. In outside markets, energy futures were mixed with higher crude oil and gasoline futures but sluggish diesel prices, which contributed to the pressure on oilseed markets to close the week. Equity markets were higher in quiet trade, with a higher U.S. Dollar Index as well for the third straight session.LIVESTOCK:Things were heating up in the cattle complex as the live cattle contracts were again pressing up against the market's 100-day moving average. Traders are seeming to hold their breath, patiently waiting to see what's going to develop in the Southern Plains as still no cattle have traded in that region. Bids are on the table in Kansas at $227, which is far below the asking price of $232 to $233, and asking prices in the North are holding steady at $358-plus. There was a light movement of trade in Nebraska at $358 Thursday afternoon, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.61 ($360.89) and select up $3.57 ($347.54) with a movement of 69 loads (43.73 loads of choice, 8.34 loads of select, 11.09 loads of trim and 6.32 loads of ground beef).The feeder cattle complex pushed a dynamite rally into Friday's closing bell, as contracts were trading anywhere from $5.00 $6.00 higher. The spot March contract is currently trading above its 100-day moving average, seeming to feel well supported since the live cattle contracts are higher, fed cash cattle prices are stronger this week, and hopeful this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report will be bullish too. Time will tell.The lean hog complex was back to trading higher as traders seemed to have regained some faith in the market but are also feeling additionally supported by the day's slight uptick in pork cutouts. It's unlikely the market will challenge resistance at $90.00, but a steady tone could be maintained through the early parts of next week.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/19140646/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The Energy Information Administration said ethanol output jumped to a new record high in the seven days ending on December 12. U.S. production rose to an average of 1.131 million barrels a day, which the agency said is up from 1.105 million the previous week and eclipsed a record set two weeks earlier. In the Midwest, output rose to an average of 1.078 million barrels a day, up from 1.046 million the prior week. 

That was all the gains for the week. East Coast production was steady at 11,000 barrels a day, on average, for the fourth-straight week. West Coast output held steady at 9,000 barrels a day. Gulf Coast production dropped by 4,000 barrels to an average of 28,000 per day, and Rocky Mountain output dropped by 2,000 barrels a day to 9,000. Inventories during the week fell to 22.353 million barrels.

The Energy Information Administration said ethanol output jumped to a new record high in the seven days ending on December 12. U.S. production rose to an average of 1.131 million barrels a day, which the agency said is up from 1.105 million the previous week and eclipsed a record set two weeks earlier. In the Midwest, output rose to an average of 1.078 million barrels a day, up from 1.046 million the prior week. That was all the gains for the week. East Coast production was steady at 11,000 barrels a day, on average, for the fourth-straight week. West Coast output held steady at 9,000 barrels a day. Gulf Coast production dropped by 4,000 barrels to an average of 28,000 per day, and Rocky Mountain output dropped by 2,000 barrels a day to 9,000. Inventories during the week fell to 22.353 million barrels.-NAFB

Ethanol production hits another record high

China has secured at least seven million tons of U.S. soybeans after multiple purchases during the past two weeks. Bloomberg said that puts the Asian country over halfway to meeting the 12-million-ton purchase agreement it made with the Trump administration. People familiar with the deals say the total comes from purchases by Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic grain stockpiles. 

The company purchased about two million tons in the last week alone, with buys continuing into this week. Bloomberg reports that at least seven soybean cargoes were purchased, totaling over 400,000 tons. Officially, the USDA has reported under four million tons of soybeans sold to China, but industry insiders say the total is likely much higher. Unfortunately, prices will likely stay under pressure, even though U.S. sellers and Chinese buyers expect the target to be met. It’s unknown exactly when the beans will ship.  

China has secured at least seven million tons of U.S. soybeans after multiple purchases during the past two weeks. Bloomberg said that puts the Asian country over halfway to meeting the 12-million-ton purchase agreement it made with the Trump administration. People familiar with the deals say the total comes from purchases by Sinograin, the state company in charge of managing China’s strategic grain stockpiles. The company purchased about two million tons in the last week alone, with buys continuing into this week. Bloomberg reports that at least seven soybean cargoes were purchased, totaling over 400,000 tons. Officially, the USDA has reported under four million tons of soybeans sold to China, but industry insiders say the total is likely much higher. Unfortunately, prices will likely stay under pressure, even though U.S. sellers and Chinese buyers expect the target to be met. It’s unknown exactly when the beans will ship. -NAFB

China halfway to soybean purchase commitment

March corn closed up 4 cents and May corn was up 4 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed down 6 cents and March soybeans were down 6 3/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 9 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 11 cents.

The corn market extended its recovery to two days on Thursday, reclaiming lost technical ground in the process on rumors that China may have bought some U.S. corn off the PNW this week. Meanwhile, the soybean complex was again lower with the exception of meal futures. Wheat futures led the charge higher on Thursday, attracting bargain buying as futures had approached and, in some cases set, new 2025 and contract lows across markets earlier this week. In macroeconomic news, the November Consumer Price Index reading of 2.7% annual inflation was firmly and surprisingly lower than the 3% reading in September. Market reaction to the news was mixed with slightly higher Treasuries but yield futures flat to only a touch lower as some economists had offered a word of warning that the data collection during the government shutdown may have resulted in a skewed inflation measure this month.

The live cattle complex was again trading lower, as though some light cash cattle trade has been reported at higher prices again this week, traders still don't believe they possess enough well-rounded support to successfully conquer the market's 100-day moving average. This left the complex only one way to go, which was lower. Even though packers bought the largest weekly trade volume of 2024 and 2025 last week at just over 103,000 head, fed cash cattle prices are trending a tick higher again this morning as packers are still in need of more cattle. Some light trade has been reported in the North by a regional packer at $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few more bids are on the table in parts of Kansas, but no Southern trade has developed yet. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $232 to $233, and in the North at $360 plus. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.95 ($357.04) and select down $2.38 ($344.05) with a movement of 46 loads ($31.77 loads of choice, 6.76 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.52 loads of ground beef).

Continuing to follow the direction of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts traded lower into Thursday's closing bell. Although the market continues to see adequate fundamental support, it's likely the complex could keep with this steady/somewhat lower trend as traders don't believe this is the best time to advance the complex over a major resistance threshold with the Christmas holiday just days ahead.

The lean hog complex was traded mostly higher as traders are to see pork cutout values up over $2.00 higher. And with Wednesday's lower technical close, the market is no longer up against immediate resistance pressure.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/18135625/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed up 4 cents and May corn was up 4 1/2 cents. January soybeans closed down 6 cents and March soybeans were down 6 3/4 cents. March KC wheat closed up 9 1/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was up 11 cents.The corn market extended its recovery to two days on Thursday, reclaiming lost technical ground in the process on rumors that China may have bought some U.S. corn off the PNW this week. Meanwhile, the soybean complex was again lower with the exception of meal futures. Wheat futures led the charge higher on Thursday, attracting bargain buying as futures had approached and, in some cases set, new 2025 and contract lows across markets earlier this week. In macroeconomic news, the November Consumer Price Index reading of 2.7% annual inflation was firmly and surprisingly lower than the 3% reading in September. Market reaction to the news was mixed with slightly higher Treasuries but yield futures flat to only a touch lower as some economists had offered a word of warning that the data collection during the government shutdown may have resulted in a skewed inflation measure this month.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex was again trading lower, as though some light cash cattle trade has been reported at higher prices again this week, traders still don't believe they possess enough well-rounded support to successfully conquer the market's 100-day moving average. This left the complex only one way to go, which was lower. Even though packers bought the largest weekly trade volume of 2024 and 2025 last week at just over 103,000 head, fed cash cattle prices are trending a tick higher again this morning as packers are still in need of more cattle. Some light trade has been reported in the North by a regional packer at $358, which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average. A few more bids are on the table in parts of Kansas, but no Southern trade has developed yet. Asking prices remain firm in the South at $232 to $233, and in the North at $360 plus. Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.95 ($357.04) and select down $2.38 ($344.05) with a movement of 46 loads ($31.77 loads of choice, 6.76 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.52 loads of ground beef).Continuing to follow the direction of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle contracts traded lower into Thursday's closing bell. Although the market continues to see adequate fundamental support, it's likely the complex could keep with this steady/somewhat lower trend as traders don't believe this is the best time to advance the complex over a major resistance threshold with the Christmas holiday just days ahead.The lean hog complex was traded mostly higher as traders are to see pork cutout values up over $2.00 higher. And with Wednesday's lower technical close, the market is no longer up against immediate resistance pressure. <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/18135625/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The U.S. isn’t the only country seeing a decline in ag equipment purchases. Brazil saw a double-digit percentage drop in tractor sales in November. That’s according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Total tractor shipments in the country were down five percent on an annual basis last month. Sales of high-horsepower and low-horsepower tractors were down 15 percent year over year in November, which followed another ten percent decline in October. 

High-horsepower tractor sales in Brazil plunged 28 percent in November and are down 15 percent year to date, according to a report from Truist Securities. Deere said it expects flat year-over-year tractor and combine sales in South America, AGCO said it expects modest growth in South America in 2026, and CNH said industry volumes will be flat. “Demand remains uncertain, due in part to the U.S.-China trade agreement, high interest rates, and strong crop yields,” Truist added.

The U.S. isn’t the only country seeing a decline in ag equipment purchases. Brazil saw a double-digit percentage drop in tractor sales in November. That’s according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers. Total tractor shipments in the country were down five percent on an annual basis last month. Sales of high-horsepower and low-horsepower tractors were down 15 percent year over year in November, which followed another ten percent decline in October. High-horsepower tractor sales in Brazil plunged 28 percent in November and are down 15 percent year to date, according to a report from Truist Securities. Deere said it expects flat year-over-year tractor and combine sales in South America, AGCO said it expects modest growth in South America in 2026, and CNH said industry volumes will be flat. “Demand remains uncertain, due in part to the U.S.-China trade agreement, high interest rates, and strong crop yields,” Truist added.-NAFB

Ag equipment sales are also falling outside the U.S. 

The National Corn Growers Association announced the winners of the 2025 Yield Contest. With growing conditions that led to a projected record corn crop, this year’s participants delivered impressive yields, once again showcasing the ingenuity of U.S. agriculture. In the 61st year of the contest, it saw almost 7,800 entries from farmers in 47 states. Entrants across the ten production categories had verified yields averaging 269 bushels an acre. 

The highest yield for this year came out of Charles City, Virginia, at 572.25 bushels per acre in Class H (strip-till irrigated) for David Hula. “The Yield Contest is really about finding out what this crop is capable of,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. ‘’And as corn farmers, we get to show what we’re made of too.”Winners will be honored at the 2026 Commodity Classic in San Antonio, Texas, February 25–27.&nbsp; A complete list of the winners can be found at <a href="https://ncga.com/get-involved/yield-contest">ncga.com/YieldContest</a>.

The National Corn Growers Association announced the winners of the 2025 Yield Contest. With growing conditions that led to a projected record corn crop, this year’s participants delivered impressive yields, once again showcasing the ingenuity of U.S. agriculture. In the 61st year of the contest, it saw almost 7,800 entries from farmers in 47 states. Entrants across the ten production categories had verified yields averaging 269 bushels an acre. The highest yield for this year came out of Charles City, Virginia, at 572.25 bushels per acre in Class H (strip-till irrigated) for David Hula. “The Yield Contest is really about finding out what this crop is capable of,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. ‘’And as corn farmers, we get to show what we’re made of too.”Winners will be honored at the 2026 Commodity Classic in San Antonio, Texas, February 25–27.&nbsp; A complete list of the winners can be found at <a href="https://ncga.com/get-involved/yield-contest">ncga.com/YieldContest</a>.-NAFB

NCGA announces yield contest winners

March corn closed up 4 cents and May corn was up 3 1/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 4 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 3 cents. March KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 3 1/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 cents.

It was another mixed to bearish session for U.S. row crops on Wednesday as South American weather bears continue to lead liquidation efforts in the soybean complex, although prices ultimately found interested buyers over the last couple of hours of trade and are oversold from a technical viewpoint. Meanwhile, corn futures found support when March prices fell below the 100-day moving average on Tuesday, rebounding to recapture those losses Wednesday. Wheat markets in the meanwhile fell to new lows in Chicago and Minneapolis. Energy markets turned higher from early 2021 lows set on Tuesday, going largely ignored in the ag sector other than positive influence on corn futures, especially following a mostly positive weekly ethanol report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Equities were again weaker on Wednesday as well on profit-taking following last week's surge to a new record for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

After rallying throughout Tuesday's trade, the live cattle complex has again settled to trade lower as the resistance at the market's 100-day moving average simply remains too stiff of a barrier to challenge at this point. Are you seeing the trend in the market right now? One day the market rallies and trades higher, but then on the next day, it steps lower as traders don't believe that either they possess enough support or that it's the right time to challenge the market's resistance. Either way, the complex is trading merely steady, holding a position just below the 100-day moving average. No cash cattle trade has developed yet. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.96 ($356.92) and select down $0.26 ($348.84) with a movement of 91 loads (72.72 loads of choice, 7.09 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.61 loads of ground beef).

After closing above the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average, the feeder cattle complex is tradeda tick lower into Wednesday's close. The market still remains above that threshold, which is significant. With the live cattle contracts trading lower, it was not surprising to see the feeder cattle contracts dip back below the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average.

The lean hog complex got back to trading lower as the market remains nervous to trade any higher following the substantial gains made last week. Given that the market is just days away from Christmas, it's likely that a slower, lower trend could develop in the lean hog complex.

<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/17140429/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:March corn closed up 4 cents and May corn was up 3 1/4 cents. January soybeans closed down 4 1/2 cents and March soybeans were down 3 cents. March KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 3 1/4 cents, March Minneapolis wheat was down 3 cents.It was another mixed to bearish session for U.S. row crops on Wednesday as South American weather bears continue to lead liquidation efforts in the soybean complex, although prices ultimately found interested buyers over the last couple of hours of trade and are oversold from a technical viewpoint. Meanwhile, corn futures found support when March prices fell below the 100-day moving average on Tuesday, rebounding to recapture those losses Wednesday. Wheat markets in the meanwhile fell to new lows in Chicago and Minneapolis. Energy markets turned higher from early 2021 lows set on Tuesday, going largely ignored in the ag sector other than positive influence on corn futures, especially following a mostly positive weekly ethanol report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Equities were again weaker on Wednesday as well on profit-taking following last week's surge to a new record for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.LIVESTOCK:After rallying throughout Tuesday's trade, the live cattle complex has again settled to trade lower as the resistance at the market's 100-day moving average simply remains too stiff of a barrier to challenge at this point. Are you seeing the trend in the market right now? One day the market rallies and trades higher, but then on the next day, it steps lower as traders don't believe that either they possess enough support or that it's the right time to challenge the market's resistance. Either way, the complex is trading merely steady, holding a position just below the 100-day moving average. No cash cattle trade has developed yet. Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.96 ($356.92) and select down $0.26 ($348.84) with a movement of 91 loads (72.72 loads of choice, 7.09 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 11.61 loads of ground beef).After closing above the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average, the feeder cattle complex is tradeda tick lower into Wednesday's close. The market still remains above that threshold, which is significant. With the live cattle contracts trading lower, it was not surprising to see the feeder cattle contracts dip back below the market's resistance at its 100-day moving average.The lean hog complex got back to trading lower as the market remains nervous to trade any higher following the substantial gains made last week. Given that the market is just days away from Christmas, it's likely that a slower, lower trend could develop in the lean hog complex.<a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/12/17140429/web-closing-markets.mp3">Click HERE for audio</a>

The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025. The legislation provides schools with the flexibility to offer flavored and unflavored whole and 2% milk options, helping to make sure children get the nutrition they need to grow, thrive, and succeed in the classroom. “I’ve worked for a decade to restore whole milk to our school cafeterias, which have been limiting healthy choices for students, but that changes today,” said bill author GT Thompson of Pennsylvania.

 “Whole milk is an essential building block for a well-rounded and balanced diet, and students should have the option to choose the milk they love.” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said, “By restoring schools’ ability to serve whole and reduced-fat milk, dairy farmers and their cooperatives can further expand their positive impact in school lunchrooms and provide more nutritious outcomes for the next generation.”  

The House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act of 2025. The legislation provides schools with the flexibility to offer flavored and unflavored whole and 2% milk options, helping to make sure children get the nutrition they need to grow, thrive, and succeed in the classroom. “I’ve worked for a decade to restore whole milk to our school cafeterias, which have been limiting healthy choices for students, but that changes today,” said bill author GT Thompson of Pennsylvania. “Whole milk is an essential building block for a well-rounded and balanced diet, and students should have the option to choose the milk they love.” Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, said, “By restoring schools’ ability to serve whole and reduced-fat milk, dairy farmers and their cooperatives can further expand their positive impact in school lunchrooms and provide more nutritious outcomes for the next generation.” -NAFB

Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act awaits presidential signature 

Green Plains Inc. has reached a major operational milestone at its three Nebraska ethanol plants. The company confirmed that biogenic carbon from all three locations is now being captured and permanently stored. The captured emissions are transported by the Trailblazer pipeline and are taken to southeastern Wyoming and injected at Tallgrass’s carbon storage hub, completing an end-to-end carbon capture and sequestration chain. 

The company says this achievement marks an important step for both the company's operations and the broader Nebraska bioeconomy, positioning low-carbon ethanol more competitively in regulated fuel markets. With the capture infrastructure now fully operational, Green Plains plans to advance a broader decarbonization strategy while targeting long-term performance gains. Management views carbon capture as a core lever for future growth in an increasingly carbon-constrained fuel market.

Green Plains Inc. has reached a major operational milestone at its three Nebraska ethanol plants. The company confirmed that biogenic carbon from all three locations is now being captured and permanently stored. The captured emissions are transported by the Trailblazer pipeline and are taken to southeastern Wyoming and injected at Tallgrass’s carbon storage hub, completing an end-to-end carbon capture and sequestration chain. The company says this achievement marks an important step for both the company's operations and the broader Nebraska bioeconomy, positioning low-carbon ethanol more competitively in regulated fuel markets. With the capture infrastructure now fully operational, Green Plains plans to advance a broader decarbonization strategy while targeting long-term performance gains. Management views carbon capture as a core lever for future growth in an increasingly carbon-constrained fuel market.-NAFB