The National FFA Organization recently announced a partnership with Vivayic, the nation’s largest learning solution provider for agriculture, to create virtual leadership labs. This unprecedented collection of modules will use a challenge-based learning approach to help prepare FFA members for success. Development of these online programs will start this Fall, with plans to make the leadership labs available to FFA members by the summer of 2026. 

Christine White, the chief program officer at the National FFA Organization, says “We believe partnering with Vivayic on this project is an exciting step forward in making leadership education more accessible, engaging, and impactful for our members,” and “As we expand to reach more than one million members, this collaboration ensures we’re combining innovation with real-world insight to equip every young leader, no matter where they are, with the tools they need to grow and succeed.” Once complete, the labs will be free and available online. 

The National FFA Organization recently announced a partnership with Vivayic, the nation’s largest learning solution provider for agriculture, to create virtual leadership labs. This unprecedented collection of modules will use a challenge-based learning approach to help prepare FFA members for success. Development of these online programs will start this Fall, with plans to make the leadership labs available to FFA members by the summer of 2026. Christine White, the chief program officer at the National FFA Organization, says “We believe partnering with Vivayic on this project is an exciting step forward in making leadership education more accessible, engaging, and impactful for our members,” and “As we expand to reach more than one million members, this collaboration ensures we’re combining innovation with real-world insight to equip every young leader, no matter where they are, with the tools they need to grow and succeed.” Once complete, the labs will be free and available online. -NAFB

National FFA working on new leadership labs

Ground beef prices continue hitting record-high levels. Reports say that’s despite still shrinking cattle herds and import restrictions set to push costs even higher. Government data shows the average price of a pound of 100 percent ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, 12 percent higher than last year. That’s also up from $5.98 in May and $5.47 in June. 

Industry experts say this trend shows no signs of slowing down, which means that there may be upward pressure on prices through 2026 and beyond. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose eight percent to $11.49 per pound. It is no secret, that the U.S. is dealing with significantly lower beef supplies, and that’s what is driving up the price of beef right now. The number of U.S. farms, including ranches, dropped by seven percent between 2017 and 2022, and it’s taking a long time to rebuild U.S. herds. 

Ground beef prices continue hitting record-high levels. Reports say that’s despite still shrinking cattle herds and import restrictions set to push costs even higher. Government data shows the average price of a pound of 100 percent ground beef rose to $6.12 in June, 12 percent higher than last year. That’s also up from $5.98 in May and $5.47 in June. Industry experts say this trend shows no signs of slowing down, which means that there may be upward pressure on prices through 2026 and beyond. The average price of all uncooked beef steaks rose eight percent to $11.49 per pound. It is no secret, that the U.S. is dealing with significantly lower beef supplies, and that’s what is driving up the price of beef right now. The number of U.S. farms, including ranches, dropped by seven percent between 2017 and 2022, and it’s taking a long time to rebuild U.S. herds. -NAFB

Beef prices hit record highs in June

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/21141537/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

September corn closed down 4 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.03 3/4 and December corn was down 5 1/2 cents at $4.22 1/4. November soybeans closed down 9 3/4 cents at $10.26 0/1 and September soybeans were down 10 1/2 cents at $10.10 1/2. September KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents at $5.25 3/4, September Chicago wheat was down 4 cents at $5.42 1/4 and September Minneapolis wheat was down 9 cents at $5.86 1/2.

The September U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.633 at 97.565. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 214.75 points at 44,556.94. August gold is up $49.70 at $3,408.00, September silver is up $0.88 at $39.34 and September copper is up $0.0380 at $5.6425. September crude oil is down $0.16 at $65.89, September heating oil is up $0.0457, September RBOB is down $0.0220 and August natural gas is down $0.254.

Corn futures slid lower Monday after weekend rains hit some key growing areas in the western and central Corn Belt. Good rain fell in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and even into dry northern Indiana. The forecast ahead keeps the active weather pattern in place for the next 10 days. Yes, there is a warm-up coming with some hot temperatures, especially in the western belt and into the southern corn areas. However, on Monday's crop progress report, traders are expecting another bump in condition ratings, with corn good to excellent ratings already at a stellar 74% last week. There appear to be few areas that are facing soil moisture issues, with corn areas impacted by some form of drought falling to just 7% now. Corn inspections were again decent and remain 29% above a year ago, with the USDA calling for just a 22% rise. In Brazil, major producing state, Mato Grosso, is now 77% harvested. Also adding to pressure is a beneficial forecast for Mexico's corn area for August, and even though they are the number one customer for U.S. corn, it appears that the Mexican corn crop is headed higher. Even with that in mind, Mexico is slated to import close to 24 mmt of corn in 2025-26. Managed money funds last week covered 20,000 contracts of their short, but as of last Tuesday, they were still net short close to 160,000 contracts. DTN's National Corn Index is $3.96 and 13 cents under the September futures.

November soybean futures fell hard Monday, pressured by good weekend weather, the prospect of more rain and early weakness in soy product markets. Also pressuring beans is concern over the impending August 1 deadline for tariffs. Soybean oil, after reaching a new high on Friday, reversed to trade lower early before recovering to finish higher. Palm oil fell 2% on Monday, pressuring bean oil early. Spot August soybean meal, after touching the 20-day moving average Friday for the first time since mid-June, quickly sold off from that level Monday. Good weekend rain in Nebraska and the "I" states, along with storms in the northern Plains, pressured markets, as did the 10-day forecast. Despite a warm-up in temperatures to 3 to 5 degrees above average in late July, early August, soy conditions are expected to get a bit better in Monday's crop progress report. Meanwhile, China continues to load up on Brazilian beans with June soy imports from Brazil rising to 10.6 mmt, 87% higher than a year ago. China imported just 1.6 mmt in June from the U.S. Soybean traders will keep an eye on the forecast, which has some extremely hot temperatures in the southern areas, but right now, it appears that soybeans are still on pace for record or near-record yields. August weather will likely have something to say about that. Managed funds added to a small net short last week, while increasing their bean oil long and remaining net short 125,000 contracts of meal. DTN's National Soybean Index is $9.85 and 50 under the November futures.

By MATT PIKEClick <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/21141537/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audioGENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed down 4 3/4 cents per bushel at $4.03 3/4 and December corn was down 5 1/2 cents at $4.22 1/4. November soybeans closed down 9 3/4 cents at $10.26 0/1 and September soybeans were down 10 1/2 cents at $10.10 1/2. September KC wheat closed down 3 1/4 cents at $5.25 3/4, September Chicago wheat was down 4 cents at $5.42 1/4 and September Minneapolis wheat was down 9 cents at $5.86 1/2.The September U.S. Dollar Index is trading down 0.633 at 97.565. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 214.75 points at 44,556.94. August gold is up $49.70 at $3,408.00, September silver is up $0.88 at $39.34 and September copper is up $0.0380 at $5.6425. September crude oil is down $0.16 at $65.89, September heating oil is up $0.0457, September RBOB is down $0.0220 and August natural gas is down $0.254.CORN:Corn futures slid lower Monday after weekend rains hit some key growing areas in the western and central Corn Belt. Good rain fell in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and even into dry northern Indiana. The forecast ahead keeps the active weather pattern in place for the next 10 days. Yes, there is a warm-up coming with some hot temperatures, especially in the western belt and into the southern corn areas. However, on Monday's crop progress report, traders are expecting another bump in condition ratings, with corn good to excellent ratings already at a stellar 74% last week. There appear to be few areas that are facing soil moisture issues, with corn areas impacted by some form of drought falling to just 7% now. Corn inspections were again decent and remain 29% above a year ago, with the USDA calling for just a 22% rise. In Brazil, major producing state, Mato Grosso, is now 77% harvested. Also adding to pressure is a beneficial forecast for Mexico's corn area for August, and even though they are the number one customer for U.S. corn, it appears that the Mexican corn crop is headed higher. Even with that in mind, Mexico is slated to import close to 24 mmt of corn in 2025-26. Managed money funds last week covered 20,000 contracts of their short, but as of last Tuesday, they were still net short close to 160,000 contracts. DTN's National Corn Index is $3.96 and 13 cents under the September futures.SOYBEANS:November soybean futures fell hard Monday, pressured by good weekend weather, the prospect of more rain and early weakness in soy product markets. Also pressuring beans is concern over the impending August 1 deadline for tariffs. Soybean oil, after reaching a new high on Friday, reversed to trade lower early before recovering to finish higher. Palm oil fell 2% on Monday, pressuring bean oil early. Spot August soybean meal, after touching the 20-day moving average Friday for the first time since mid-June, quickly sold off from that level Monday. Good weekend rain in Nebraska and the "I" states, along with storms in the northern Plains, pressured markets, as did the 10-day forecast. Despite a warm-up in temperatures to 3 to 5 degrees above average in late July, early August, soy conditions are expected to get a bit better in Monday's crop progress report. Meanwhile, China continues to load up on Brazilian beans with June soy imports from Brazil rising to 10.6 mmt, 87% higher than a year ago. China imported just 1.6 mmt in June from the U.S. Soybean traders will keep an eye on the forecast, which has some extremely hot temperatures in the southern areas, but right now, it appears that soybeans are still on pace for record or near-record yields. August weather will likely have something to say about that. Managed funds added to a small net short last week, while increasing their bean oil long and remaining net short 125,000 contracts of meal. DTN's National Soybean Index is $9.85 and 50 under the November futures.WHEAT:

Commodity markets daily recap

According to the latest Crop Protection Network map, positive cases of tar spot have been reported in 26 Iowa counties so far this growing season. First reported in the Corn Belt in 2015, the disease has been confirmed in Iowa since 2016. Now all 99 Iowa counties have a history with the disease. This season, tar spot has also been confirmed in neighboring Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. Kansas, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York have reported positive cases as well. 

Gentry Sorenson covers a number of northwest Iowa counties as an extension agronomist. He says the crop is late stage vegetative to R2 in his area. That’s about the right time to consider applying fungicide to target tar spot. Multi-state fungicide research results show that applications made for tar spot management are most effective and economical when made between R2-R3, even when disease developed during early vegetative stages.

According to the latest Crop Protection Network map, positive cases of tar spot have been reported in 26 Iowa counties so far this growing season. First reported in the Corn Belt in 2015, the disease has been confirmed in Iowa since 2016. Now all 99 Iowa counties have a history with the disease. This season, tar spot has also been confirmed in neighboring Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. Kansas, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York have reported positive cases as well. Gentry Sorenson covers a number of northwest Iowa counties as an extension agronomist. He says the crop is late stage vegetative to R2 in his area. That’s about the right time to consider applying fungicide to target tar spot. Multi-state fungicide research results show that applications made for tar spot management are most effective and economical when made between R2-R3, even when disease developed during early vegetative stages.-NAFB

Tar spot confirmed in 10 states, 26 Iowa counties

National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 is quickly approaching. This year's theme is "Safety First, Avoid the Worst." Since 1944, one week each year has been designated as a time to focus on some of the unique challenges faced by agricultural communities. NFSHW is organized by the National Education Center for Agricultural Safety , an agricultural partner of the National Safety Council. 

This year, NFSHW will be observed from Sept. 21 to 27, with activities taking place across the U.S. The program will spotlight critical safety topics through educational workshops and daily webinars, offering valuable information and resources for farmers, ranchers, agricultural workers and rural communities. In addition to educational webinars, many community outreach events will take place nationwide, featuring interactive exhibits, safety demonstrations and local vendors.

National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 is quickly approaching. This year's theme is "Safety First, Avoid the Worst." Since 1944, one week each year has been designated as a time to focus on some of the unique challenges faced by agricultural communities. NFSHW is organized by the National Education Center for Agricultural Safety , an agricultural partner of the National Safety Council. This year, NFSHW will be observed from Sept. 21 to 27, with activities taking place across the U.S. The program will spotlight critical safety topics through educational workshops and daily webinars, offering valuable information and resources for farmers, ranchers, agricultural workers and rural communities. In addition to educational webinars, many community outreach events will take place nationwide, featuring interactive exhibits, safety demonstrations and local vendors.-NAFB

National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 coming in September

September corn closed up 6 1/2 cents and December corn was up 6 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 11 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 12 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.

September corn closed up 12 1/2 cents and December corn was up 15 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 23 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 28 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 1/5 cents.

Grain futures rebounded from a shaky Thursday session to roll into the weekend with strong gains, led by wheat finally catching a bid amid contract lows to trade double-digits higher for winter varieties. Meanwhile, soybeans strung together three solid days to close the week, adding over 30 cents of value to the new-crop November contract from Tuesday's close. Commodity markets did fade off daily highs as the session wore on Friday, with profit-taking beginning in energy markets before seeping into agriculture markets by late morning. After Friday's close, traders will want to tune in for the CFTC's latest Commitments of Traders Report which will shed light on trader positions as of Tuesday's close.

The live cattle complex traded lower as the market is no longer seeming confident in the levels reached earlier this week. It's slightly frustrating to see the futures complex trading lower while feedlot managers were able to keep the cash cattle market steady to $1.00 higher in both regions, but the fact remains that traders simply seem uncomfortable and because of that, the contracts traded lower.

The feeder cattle complex continued to follow in the live cattle complex's wake, so it comes as little to no surprise that the contracts traded fully lower into Friday's closing bell. And at this point, it's unlikely that the market will change its direction for the short term.

The lean hog complex traded mostly mixed into Friday's close, as the market continues to build off the positive technical footing in which the market has established in the contracts, and upon the higher uptick in pork demand. It's rather impressive to note this morning that there isn't one single major cut that was lower on today's midday report.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/18153010/web-ag-news.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 6 1/2 cents and December corn was up 6 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents and November soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 11 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 12 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/2 cents.For the week:September corn closed up 12 1/2 cents and December corn was up 15 1/2 cents. August soybeans closed up 23 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 28 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 4 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 1 1/4 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 1/5 cents.Grain futures rebounded from a shaky Thursday session to roll into the weekend with strong gains, led by wheat finally catching a bid amid contract lows to trade double-digits higher for winter varieties. Meanwhile, soybeans strung together three solid days to close the week, adding over 30 cents of value to the new-crop November contract from Tuesday's close. Commodity markets did fade off daily highs as the session wore on Friday, with profit-taking beginning in energy markets before seeping into agriculture markets by late morning. After Friday's close, traders will want to tune in for the CFTC's latest Commitments of Traders Report which will shed light on trader positions as of Tuesday's close.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex traded lower as the market is no longer seeming confident in the levels reached earlier this week. It's slightly frustrating to see the futures complex trading lower while feedlot managers were able to keep the cash cattle market steady to $1.00 higher in both regions, but the fact remains that traders simply seem uncomfortable and because of that, the contracts traded lower. The feeder cattle complex continued to follow in the live cattle complex's wake, so it comes as little to no surprise that the contracts traded fully lower into Friday's closing bell. And at this point, it's unlikely that the market will change its direction for the short term.The lean hog complex traded mostly mixed into Friday's close, as the market continues to build off the positive technical footing in which the market has established in the contracts, and upon the higher uptick in pork demand. It's rather impressive to note this morning that there isn't one single major cut that was lower on today's midday report.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/18153010/web-ag-news.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

The Trump administration says there won’t be a crackdown on pesticide use in the U.S. Reports say that’s despite a report from the Make America Healthy Again Committee that called crop protection products dangerous to people’s health. During a recent policy roundtable in Washington, D.C., seven out of the ten speakers mentioned how important pesticides and fertilizers are in modern agricultural production systems. 

Agriculture industry lobbyists have been pushing back against the Make America Healthy Again Committee report, which linked pesticides to cancer and other diseases. A White House official, speaking anonymously, says a plan for acting on that report is due in August and won’t include new policies on pesticide use. The promise may signal the White House is eager to smooth out trouble spots with farmers and farm groups. 

The Trump administration says there won’t be a crackdown on pesticide use in the U.S. Reports say that’s despite a report from the Make America Healthy Again Committee that called crop protection products dangerous to people’s health. During a recent policy roundtable in Washington, D.C., seven out of the ten speakers mentioned how important pesticides and fertilizers are in modern agricultural production systems. Agriculture industry lobbyists have been pushing back against the Make America Healthy Again Committee report, which linked pesticides to cancer and other diseases. A White House official, speaking anonymously, says a plan for acting on that report is due in August and won’t include new policies on pesticide use. The promise may signal the White House is eager to smooth out trouble spots with farmers and farm groups. -NAFB

No crackdown on pesticide use

Farmers Union member John Wicks testified before the House Ag Committee’s Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities, Risk Management, and Credit. His testimony detailed the importance of credit and risk management for family farmers. “While access to affordable and reliable credit and well-functioning risk management tools are important for family farmers, we must have fair and competitive markets and a robust farm safety net,” Wicks said during his testimony. 

“Recent changes to improve the farm safety net may help alleviate some challenges with persistently high input costs and low commodity prices, but farmers still face major economic stress as long as corporate monopolies in agriculture remain unchecked, as they are today.” Wicks made recommendations to improve the Farm Service Agency’s loan program, including increasing loan limits to reflect the current economic environment, making it more feasible to restructure debt and meet the unique needs of all producers. 

Farmers Union member John Wicks testified before the House Ag Committee’s Subcommittee on General Farm Commodities, Risk Management, and Credit. His testimony detailed the importance of credit and risk management for family farmers. “While access to affordable and reliable credit and well-functioning risk management tools are important for family farmers, we must have fair and competitive markets and a robust farm safety net,” Wicks said during his testimony. “Recent changes to improve the farm safety net may help alleviate some challenges with persistently high input costs and low commodity prices, but farmers still face major economic stress as long as corporate monopolies in agriculture remain unchecked, as they are today.” Wicks made recommendations to improve the Farm Service Agency’s loan program, including increasing loan limits to reflect the current economic environment, making it more feasible to restructure debt and meet the unique needs of all producers. -NAFB

Farmers Union testifies on credit and risk management

September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. August soybeans closed up 8 cents and November soybeans were up 6 cents. September KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.

It was a mixed session overall for row-crop prices as oilseeds across the board were firm, deriving strength from a break above resistance by soybean oil futures to new 2025 highs. Meanwhile, corn futures failed to hold at the first significant technical test of their bounce, struggling as well to shake the negative influence of wheat markets which broke support and appear primed to test contract lows. Outside markets were mostly a positive influence on ag Thursday, with equities back on track following early Wednesday Fed-related turbulence and energy markets were firmer as well.

Following Wednesday's higher close in the live cattle complex, traders are now waving their white flag, seeming to scream, "we need more fundamental reassurance before we can advance the market any higher," from the rooftops around the world. It comes as no surprise that boxed beef prices traded lower as the seasonal regression is well underway for the third quarter. However, traders are sitting on pins and needles awaiting to see what develops in this week's fed cash cattle market. Bids were offered throughout the day on Wednesday, but no cattle traded, only a small handful of sales have been noted today. Some light business has been noted in the North from a Nebraska Regional packer at $380, but those cattle are set for delivery for the week of Aug. 4. A few deals have also been reported in Kansas for $231, but the week's volume is still too thin to say that any sort of a trend has been established.

Seeming to follow suit once again, the feeder cattle complex followed in the live cattle market's wake, unwilling to move opposite of the live cattle complex right now. What is interesting to note is that even while the nearby contracts traded lower, the deferred feeder cattle contracts continued to inch higher as traders are acknowledging the fact that there isn't going to be an overabundance of supply anytime in the near future.

The lean hog complex continued to trade higher as the market is pleased to see pork cutout values stronger and has established somewhat of a bottom in the futures complex for this move. It is surprising to note that while compared to a week ago pork exports were down 30%, the market isn't seeming unscathed by that announcement. However, last week, the lower note of exports gravely impacted the market.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/17145354/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 3 cents. August soybeans closed up 8 cents and November soybeans were up 6 cents. September KC wheat closed down 5 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 3/4 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 4 1/2 cents.It was a mixed session overall for row-crop prices as oilseeds across the board were firm, deriving strength from a break above resistance by soybean oil futures to new 2025 highs. Meanwhile, corn futures failed to hold at the first significant technical test of their bounce, struggling as well to shake the negative influence of wheat markets which broke support and appear primed to test contract lows. Outside markets were mostly a positive influence on ag Thursday, with equities back on track following early Wednesday Fed-related turbulence and energy markets were firmer as well.LIVESTOCK:Following Wednesday's higher close in the live cattle complex, traders are now waving their white flag, seeming to scream, "we need more fundamental reassurance before we can advance the market any higher," from the rooftops around the world. It comes as no surprise that boxed beef prices traded lower as the seasonal regression is well underway for the third quarter. However, traders are sitting on pins and needles awaiting to see what develops in this week's fed cash cattle market. Bids were offered throughout the day on Wednesday, but no cattle traded, only a small handful of sales have been noted today. Some light business has been noted in the North from a Nebraska Regional packer at $380, but those cattle are set for delivery for the week of Aug. 4. A few deals have also been reported in Kansas for $231, but the week's volume is still too thin to say that any sort of a trend has been established.Seeming to follow suit once again, the feeder cattle complex followed in the live cattle market's wake, unwilling to move opposite of the live cattle complex right now. What is interesting to note is that even while the nearby contracts traded lower, the deferred feeder cattle contracts continued to inch higher as traders are acknowledging the fact that there isn't going to be an overabundance of supply anytime in the near future.The lean hog complex continued to trade higher as the market is pleased to see pork cutout values stronger and has established somewhat of a bottom in the futures complex for this move. It is surprising to note that while compared to a week ago pork exports were down 30%, the market isn't seeming unscathed by that announcement. However, last week, the lower note of exports gravely impacted the market.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/17145354/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

Farmers National Company says that despite ongoing challenges in commodity markets and uncertain farm profitability, agricultural land values remained surprisingly stable through mid-2025. While producers remain the main buyers of ag land, interest from individual and institutional investors can’t be ignored. As land values stabilize after reaching peaks during the past five years, investors are increasingly attracted by both annual returns and long-term appreciation. 

Inventory remains limited, with listings down 20-25 percent from the peak in 2020-2021. “The USDA forecasts 2025 net farm income to be the lowest since 2020,” says Paul Shadegg, senior vice president of real estate. “This will influence producer purchasing power and investor returns, especially as input costs, commodity prices, and interest rates fluctuate.” He also says any negative movement in the ag economy could quickly impact the land market. Geopolitical developments like trade policies, tariffs, and global unrest can also create uncertainty in domestic and international markets.

Farmers National Company says that despite ongoing challenges in commodity markets and uncertain farm profitability, agricultural land values remained surprisingly stable through mid-2025. While producers remain the main buyers of ag land, interest from individual and institutional investors can’t be ignored. As land values stabilize after reaching peaks during the past five years, investors are increasingly attracted by both annual returns and long-term appreciation. Inventory remains limited, with listings down 20-25 percent from the peak in 2020-2021. “The USDA forecasts 2025 net farm income to be the lowest since 2020,” says Paul Shadegg, senior vice president of real estate. “This will influence producer purchasing power and investor returns, especially as input costs, commodity prices, and interest rates fluctuate.” He also says any negative movement in the ag economy could quickly impact the land market. Geopolitical developments like trade policies, tariffs, and global unrest can also create uncertainty in domestic and international markets.-NAFB

Farmland prices holding steady

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new comprehensive plan to boost USDA’s efforts to combat foodborne illness. She spoke during the opening of USDA’s new, modernized Midwestern Food Safety Laboratory. The Plan will better position USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, which is responsible for ensuring meat, poultry, and egg products are safe, wholesome, and properly labeled, to protect the nation’s food supply. 

The Plan includes steps like enhancing microbiological testing and inspection oversight. USDA will also equip FSIS Inspectors with updated training and tools, empower those inspectors to take action to drive compliance, strengthen state partnerships, and find a more effective and achievable approach to address salmonella in poultry products. “We’re charting a new course in giving consumers confidence that their meat, poultry, and egg products meet the best-in-class food safety standards,” Rollins said. “I look forward to continued collaboration with states and food producers to protect public health.” 

Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins announced a new comprehensive plan to boost USDA’s efforts to combat foodborne illness. She spoke during the opening of USDA’s new, modernized Midwestern Food Safety Laboratory. The Plan will better position USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, which is responsible for ensuring meat, poultry, and egg products are safe, wholesome, and properly labeled, to protect the nation’s food supply. The Plan includes steps like enhancing microbiological testing and inspection oversight. USDA will also equip FSIS Inspectors with updated training and tools, empower those inspectors to take action to drive compliance, strengthen state partnerships, and find a more effective and achievable approach to address salmonella in poultry products. “We’re charting a new course in giving consumers confidence that their meat, poultry, and egg products meet the best-in-class food safety standards,” Rollins said. “I look forward to continued collaboration with states and food producers to protect public health.” -NAFB

New USDA plan will boost food supply safety

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/06/11201542/30001.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 18 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 3 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.31 at 98.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124.0 points at 44,371.0. August gold is up $24.60 at $3,361.30, September silver is up $0.03 at $38.14 and September copper is down $0.0635. August crude oil is down $0.19 at $66.33, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0133, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0279 and August natural gas is up $0.016.

September corn futures closed up 4 cents Wednesday at $4.05 1/4. December futures were up 4 1/4 cents at $4.24. Corn futures were able to add another positive session to remain perfect for the week thus far. Pollination window speculation is at full swing this week with murmurings of issues in areas in the Eastern Corn Belt likely playing a role in motivating short-covering among traders. Otherwise, heading into this crucial period there are some areas that will be needing the forecasted rainfall through the balance of July very badly and it will be important to monitor potential hits and misses through the month. Weather updates are due on Thursday both from the National Drought Monitor as well as NOAA's seasonal outlook which will shed more light on the situation heading into the latter half of the summer.

Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration showed weekly ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, just above the prior week's 1.085 million bpd average, and within trade expectations. This total was below the same period last year by less than 2% but 3% higher than the previous 4-year average for the second week of July. Total ethanol production for the corn marketing year thus far slipped just slightly to 3.5% ahead of the 2023-24 season.

In corn technicals, December futures were able to reclaim former support above $4.20 at least for Wednesday but ran into resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.25 3/4, the daily high for December corn. This is the immediate bullish target for a continuation of the rally. Support to watch will first be at $4.20 and then at $4.15.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.89. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.93.

August soybeans were up 18 1/2 cents at $10.13 1/2, while November soybeans closed up 18 3/4 cents at $10.20 1/2 on Wednesday. The soybean market jolted awake at midweek following a series of holds above the $10.00 mark for the November contract. USDA also announced a 4.4 million bushel (mb) new-crop soybean flash sale to unknown destinations which has led to speculation that the sale may in fact be to China. Time will tell on that; but either way the soybean export program is entering an important stretch of weeks for building the book of sales for the 2025-26 season.

In other bullish news for soybeans, NOPA crush for June set a record for that month at 185.7 mb, despite being just under 4% lower than May's volume due to an expected seasonal dip. The average NOPA member share of total U.S. crush of 94% would imply total June crush of near 197 mb. Overall, the 2024-25 crush program is well on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb for the soybean marketing year. Meanwhile, NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks at 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest for June since 2024 as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. Soybean oil futures are up against resistance near 55 cents per pound, a close above which would put the 2025 high of 55.98 as the bullish goal.

In soybean technicals, November futures were able to reclaim a close above former support near $10.15, which will be important to monitor for support on a potential retest through the balance of the trading week. A successful footing here sets up the major moving averages in the $10.27-$10.34 range as a bullish target. It is also worth noting the chart gap which remains unfilled from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.51. Tuesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 44 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.

September Kansas City futures fell 1 cent Wednesday to $4.22 3/4. September Chicago futures were up 3 1/4 cents, while MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures also struggled to gain momentum, falling 1 3/4 cents. Overall, it was a frustrating session for the wheat market as prices were ultimately unable to really ever get going in the face of harvest pressure as well as decent rainfall chances for needy spring wheat areas in the northern reaches of the U.S. Plains.

In world wheat news, Paris milling futures are also struggling to find momentum, translated to roughly $6.30 per bushel currently and stuck in a 2-month range between $6.20 and $6.50, as well as lower in three out of the past four sessions. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons (mmt), up considerably from a generally poor 2024 crop. In their weekly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported generally weaker world FOB export values, with Russian offers remaining near the lowest offer but IGC noting the slow pace to harvest has kept trading activity at a minimum.

In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures have settled into a very narrow trading range this week, with closes of down 1 1/4 cents, up 1 3/4 cents, and down 1 cent through Wednesday, with intraday moves in either direction lacking conviction. Support near $5.20 is likely the last level above the September contract low at $5.15 1/2. Resistance is currently near $5.27 or so for the immediate outlook.

The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.71. Wednesday's futures close and implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would indicate the index for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.70.

GRAINS:Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/06/11201542/30001.mp3">HERE</a> for audioSeptember corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed up 18 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 18 3/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 cent, September Chicago wheat was up 3 1/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was down 1 3/4 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.31 at 98.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124.0 points at 44,371.0. August gold is up $24.60 at $3,361.30, September silver is up $0.03 at $38.14 and September copper is down $0.0635. August crude oil is down $0.19 at $66.33, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0133, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0279 and August natural gas is up $0.016.CORN:September corn futures closed up 4 cents Wednesday at $4.05 1/4. December futures were up 4 1/4 cents at $4.24. Corn futures were able to add another positive session to remain perfect for the week thus far. Pollination window speculation is at full swing this week with murmurings of issues in areas in the Eastern Corn Belt likely playing a role in motivating short-covering among traders. Otherwise, heading into this crucial period there are some areas that will be needing the forecasted rainfall through the balance of July very badly and it will be important to monitor potential hits and misses through the month. Weather updates are due on Thursday both from the National Drought Monitor as well as NOAA's seasonal outlook which will shed more light on the situation heading into the latter half of the summer.Wednesday's Petroleum Status report from the Energy Information Administration showed weekly ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, just above the prior week's 1.085 million bpd average, and within trade expectations. This total was below the same period last year by less than 2% but 3% higher than the previous 4-year average for the second week of July. Total ethanol production for the corn marketing year thus far slipped just slightly to 3.5% ahead of the 2023-24 season.In corn technicals, December futures were able to reclaim former support above $4.20 at least for Wednesday but ran into resistance at the 20-day moving average near $4.25 3/4, the daily high for December corn. This is the immediate bullish target for a continuation of the rally. Support to watch will first be at $4.20 and then at $4.15.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.89. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.93.SOYBEANS:August soybeans were up 18 1/2 cents at $10.13 1/2, while November soybeans closed up 18 3/4 cents at $10.20 1/2 on Wednesday. The soybean market jolted awake at midweek following a series of holds above the $10.00 mark for the November contract. USDA also announced a 4.4 million bushel (mb) new-crop soybean flash sale to unknown destinations which has led to speculation that the sale may in fact be to China. Time will tell on that; but either way the soybean export program is entering an important stretch of weeks for building the book of sales for the 2025-26 season.In other bullish news for soybeans, NOPA crush for June set a record for that month at 185.7 mb, despite being just under 4% lower than May's volume due to an expected seasonal dip. The average NOPA member share of total U.S. crush of 94% would imply total June crush of near 197 mb. Overall, the 2024-25 crush program is well on pace to hit the USDA goal of 2.420 bb for the soybean marketing year. Meanwhile, NOPA also reported soybean oil stocks at 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest for June since 2024 as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. Soybean oil futures are up against resistance near 55 cents per pound, a close above which would put the 2025 high of 55.98 as the bullish goal.In soybean technicals, November futures were able to reclaim a close above former support near $10.15, which will be important to monitor for support on a potential retest through the balance of the trading week. A successful footing here sets up the major moving averages in the $10.27-$10.34 range as a bullish target. It is also worth noting the chart gap which remains unfilled from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.51. Tuesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 44 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Tuesday afternoon to be near $9.70.WHEAT:September Kansas City futures fell 1 cent Wednesday to $4.22 3/4. September Chicago futures were up 3 1/4 cents, while MIAX Minneapolis spring wheat futures also struggled to gain momentum, falling 1 3/4 cents. Overall, it was a frustrating session for the wheat market as prices were ultimately unable to really ever get going in the face of harvest pressure as well as decent rainfall chances for needy spring wheat areas in the northern reaches of the U.S. Plains.In world wheat news, Paris milling futures are also struggling to find momentum, translated to roughly $6.30 per bushel currently and stuck in a 2-month range between $6.20 and $6.50, as well as lower in three out of the past four sessions. The French Ministry of Agriculture estimated 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 million metric tons (mmt), up considerably from a generally poor 2024 crop. In their weekly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) reported generally weaker world FOB export values, with Russian offers remaining near the lowest offer but IGC noting the slow pace to harvest has kept trading activity at a minimum.In wheat technicals, September Kansas City futures have settled into a very narrow trading range this week, with closes of down 1 1/4 cents, up 1 3/4 cents, and down 1 cent through Wednesday, with intraday moves in either direction lacking conviction. Support near $5.20 is likely the last level above the September contract low at $5.15 1/2. Resistance is currently near $5.27 or so for the immediate outlook.The DTN National HRW Index finished Tuesday at $4.71. Wednesday's futures close and implied basis of 53 cents under the September board for HRW would indicate the index for Wednesday afternoon to be near $4.70.

September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.

Row-crop prices once again wavered Tuesday as traders are very indecisive at this point of where to send prices next. Long-term support immediately below current prices perhaps signals to some traders they have adequately priced in their bearish outlook for the time being. Outside markets were mixed following the June Consumer Price Index report which showed a slight uptick in inflation as compared to May but was also in line with expectations at 2.7%, year-over-year. Still, this widens the gap between the current rate and the Fed's target rate of 2%, adding to unlikeliness of a cut to interest rates in the Fed meeting toward the end of this month. The current CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% chance the target range of 4.25-4.50% is held by the FOMC at that meeting. This will most likely turn up the tension between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell again, adding another layer of uncertainty and anxiety to the marketplace.

Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains were seen in all live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher. Although, the August contract is technically leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts was the main driver of the renewed market support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Cash cattle markets remain very slow to start the week.

Feeder cattle complex rallied higher Tuesday with all contracts through March 2026 trading higher as strong underlying support helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark additional underlying futures market support but could create additional fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future.

Lean hog futures were sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July futures remain positive, but the underlying concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price levels. October futures lead the market lower for nearby trade activity with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and $28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/15152353/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 6 cents and November soybeans were down 5 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 2 1/4 cents.Row-crop prices once again wavered Tuesday as traders are very indecisive at this point of where to send prices next. Long-term support immediately below current prices perhaps signals to some traders they have adequately priced in their bearish outlook for the time being. Outside markets were mixed following the June Consumer Price Index report which showed a slight uptick in inflation as compared to May but was also in line with expectations at 2.7%, year-over-year. Still, this widens the gap between the current rate and the Fed's target rate of 2%, adding to unlikeliness of a cut to interest rates in the Fed meeting toward the end of this month. The current CME FedWatch tool shows a 97.4% chance the target range of 4.25-4.50% is held by the FOMC at that meeting. This will most likely turn up the tension between the Trump administration and Fed Chair Jerome Powell again, adding another layer of uncertainty and anxiety to the marketplace.LIVESTOCK:Live cattle futures have rallied higher Tuesday morning despite an uncertain start in the early minutes of trade. Active triple-digit gains were seen in all live cattle futures with spot month August futures leading the market higher. Although, the August contract is technically leading the market higher, the focus on October and December contracts was the main driver of the renewed market support. Any pressure seen on Monday in the complex seems to have at least temporarily been eased, with traders looking for continued support in both beef values and cash cattle trade at the end of the week. Cash cattle markets remain very slow to start the week.Feeder cattle complex rallied higher Tuesday with all contracts through March 2026 trading higher as strong underlying support helped move the feeder cattle price above the $320 per cwt levels. The ability to sustain prices at or above this level will not only likely spark additional underlying futures market support but could create additional fundamental support through the entire complex over the near future. Lean hog futures were sluggish Tuesday with most, if not all, of the attention being diverted to the cattle complex through morning trade. July futures remain positive, but the underlying concerns surrounding potential tariff levels and unknowns of how this will impact long-term trade is putting pressure on fall and winter contract price levels. October futures lead the market lower for nearby trade activity with a $1 per cwt loss at midday. This constitutes not only falling market pressure but widens the spread between front month futures and deferred prices. Currently there remains a $20 per cwt discount in the October contracts, and $28 per cwt discount to December futures. This market difference is accounting for the uncertainty in global pork demand met by U.S. production, and not any sizable shift in overall hog supplies over the upcoming months.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/15152353/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

The 2025 New Century Farmer Conference will take place July 20-24 in Indianapolis, Indiana, bringing together 50 elite FFA alumni from 22 states to advance their leadership and career skills. It was a unique opportunity to learn about working in the agriculture industry from several different experts. Nearly a third of the participants are first-generation producers, with the majority of them being interested in farm ownership or entrepreneurship as potential career paths.

The 2025 New Century Farmer Conference will take place July 20-24 in Indianapolis, Indiana, bringing together 50 elite FFA alumni from 22 states to advance their leadership and career skills. It was a unique opportunity to learn about working in the agriculture industry from several different experts. Nearly a third of the participants are first-generation producers, with the majority of them being interested in farm ownership or entrepreneurship as potential career paths.

Future ag leaders explore innovation and entrepreneurship

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump threatened to put a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Europe beginning on August 1, 2025. The move comes after weeks of negotiations that have not concluded in a comprehensive trade deal. The President announced the threats in separate letters to Mexican and EU leaders. Those letters were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. 

Reports show the EU and Mexico are among the largest trading partners for the U.S. and responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the U.S. for a broader trade deal before the deadline. The effect on U.S. agriculture could be significant. U.S. Department of Agriculture data says Mexico made up 69 percent of America’s vegetable imports and 51 percent of fresh fruit imports. With short shelf lives, produce could see price hikes faster than other goods. 

Over the weekend, President Donald Trump threatened to put a 30 percent tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Europe beginning on August 1, 2025. The move comes after weeks of negotiations that have not concluded in a comprehensive trade deal. The President announced the threats in separate letters to Mexican and EU leaders. Those letters were posted on his Truth Social media site on Saturday. Reports show the EU and Mexico are among the largest trading partners for the U.S. and responded by calling the tariffs unfair and disruptive while pledging to continue to negotiate with the U.S. for a broader trade deal before the deadline. The effect on U.S. agriculture could be significant. U.S. Department of Agriculture data says Mexico made up 69 percent of America’s vegetable imports and 51 percent of fresh fruit imports. With short shelf lives, produce could see price hikes faster than other goods. -NAFB

Trump threatens Mexico, EU with 30 percent tariff

September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 10 cents.

Row crop prices posted double-digit trading ranges on Monday in the first full session removed from Friday's USDA updates. It appears traders are torn between their previous bearish rationale given there has been little change on the weather radar with ample precipitation through the next 15 days. Outside markets were mixed Monday with stock indices recovering from a lower start amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico as well as the European Union. The EU has stated that retaliatory action will not be considered until following the Aug. 1 deadline, so investors took that with a hint of optimism. Energy markets on the other hand turned lower after a firm start as traders and investors await further news on possible U.S. sanctions against Russia, meanwhile the ongoing tariff headlines and OPEC+ production increases through summer are weighing on prices.

After aggressively running to new contract highs on Friday, the live cattle complex walked back some of the recent position it has concurred as traders aren't as bullish at the start of this week. Some external pressures, such as the high tariffs threat on Russia if a peace deal isn't met within 50 days could be unsettling to traders, but more than anything, it seems as though traders are still catching their breath from last week's whirlwind-like trade and are trying to decipher what to do with the market now.

The feeder cattle complex was feeling the same pressure that's affecting the live cattle complex, but only in a more aggressive form as most of its contracts traded $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Although the board traded sharply lower, it's likely that sales in the countryside will be largely unphased as supplies are limited enough that buyers have to remain aggressive if they want to fulfill their orders.

The lean hog complex saw some of the same skepticism from traders that the cattle complex did, but not near as dramatically, as most of its contracts are trading just $1.00 to $3.00 lower. What is encouraging to see, however, is the fact that pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the belly's $9.06 jump, but the picnic, rib and ham were all up over $2.00 as well.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/14142149/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed up 4 cents and December corn was up 5 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed down 1 1/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was down 10 cents.Row crop prices posted double-digit trading ranges on Monday in the first full session removed from Friday's USDA updates. It appears traders are torn between their previous bearish rationale given there has been little change on the weather radar with ample precipitation through the next 15 days. Outside markets were mixed Monday with stock indices recovering from a lower start amid heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico as well as the European Union. The EU has stated that retaliatory action will not be considered until following the Aug. 1 deadline, so investors took that with a hint of optimism. Energy markets on the other hand turned lower after a firm start as traders and investors await further news on possible U.S. sanctions against Russia, meanwhile the ongoing tariff headlines and OPEC+ production increases through summer are weighing on prices.LIVESTOCK:After aggressively running to new contract highs on Friday, the live cattle complex walked back some of the recent position it has concurred as traders aren't as bullish at the start of this week. Some external pressures, such as the high tariffs threat on Russia if a peace deal isn't met within 50 days could be unsettling to traders, but more than anything, it seems as though traders are still catching their breath from last week's whirlwind-like trade and are trying to decipher what to do with the market now.The feeder cattle complex was feeling the same pressure that's affecting the live cattle complex, but only in a more aggressive form as most of its contracts traded $4.00 to $5.00 lower. Although the board traded sharply lower, it's likely that sales in the countryside will be largely unphased as supplies are limited enough that buyers have to remain aggressive if they want to fulfill their orders.The lean hog complex saw some of the same skepticism from traders that the cattle complex did, but not near as dramatically, as most of its contracts are trading just $1.00 to $3.00 lower. What is encouraging to see, however, is the fact that pork cutout values were higher, which is mainly because of the belly's $9.06 jump, but the picnic, rib and ham were all up over $2.00 as well.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/14142149/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation, while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expectation. Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels. Corn planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. 

Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased its crush forecast by 50 mb, while cutting exports by 70 mb.

In Friday’s WASDE report, USDA pegged 2025/2026 corn and wheat ending stocks lower month-over-month and lower than the average trade expectation, while soybean ending stocks were increased month-over-month more than the average expectation. Old-crop corn exports were increased 100 million bushels to 2.75 billion bushels. The 2025-26 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.7 billion bushels. Corn planted acres were lowered 100,000 acres to 95.2 million acres, matching the June 30 crop report. Harvested acres are projected at 86.8 million, down 600,000 acres from June. USDA integrated its 83.4-million-acre soybean planting estimate into its supply and demand forecast, resulting in a 5-million-bushel decline in production to 4.335 mb. The forecast for 2025-26 soybean ending stocks increased by 15 mb to 310 mb, within the range of pre-report expectations. Along with lower production, USDA increased its crush forecast by 50 mb, while cutting exports by 70 mb.-NAFB

USDA slightly lowers corn production, boosts old-crop exports to record level

Agricultural producers who suffered eligible crop losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. To expedite the help, assistance from the Farm Service Agency is coming in two stages. This first is open to producers with eligible crop losses who received assistance under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program during 2023 and 2024. 

Stage One sign-ups started in person at FSA County Offices late last week, and prefilled applications are on the way to producers through the mail. Stage Two sign-ups for eligible shallow or uncovered losses begin in early Fall. Eligible losses must be the result of natural disasters occurring in calendar years 2023 and-or 2024. To qualify for drought losses, it must have occurred in a D2 or D3 drought or greater intensity level during the applicable calendar year. 

Agricultural producers who suffered eligible crop losses due to natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 can now apply for $16 billion in assistance through the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program. To expedite the help, assistance from the Farm Service Agency is coming in two stages. This first is open to producers with eligible crop losses who received assistance under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program during 2023 and 2024. Stage One sign-ups started in person at FSA County Offices late last week, and prefilled applications are on the way to producers through the mail. Stage Two sign-ups for eligible shallow or uncovered losses begin in early Fall. Eligible losses must be the result of natural disasters occurring in calendar years 2023 and-or 2024. To qualify for drought losses, it must have occurred in a D2 or D3 drought or greater intensity level during the applicable calendar year. -NAFB

2023-24 disaster assistance for farmers now available

September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents, September&nbsp; Minneapolis wheat was down 18 cents.

September corn closed down 24 1/4 cents and December corn was down 24 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 52 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 42 cents. September KC wheat closed down 13 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 32 cents.

The market feature for Friday was the release of the July WASDE and Crop Production report from USDA. The report came in mostly in line with trader and analyst expectations with a few curveballs from the government. Overall, despite some of the estimates certainly having a bullish twist, market reaction was one of intense skepticism especially regarding the lower production estimates from USDA for the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops amid the rainy forecast for mid to late June. Moving forward, it will be a very interesting dynamic to watch the ongoing bearish weather trade go up against long-term support as row crops trade among and in a few instances beyond their 2025 lows into mid-summer.

What a day, what a day, what a day! The live cattle complex, upon seeing some light trade finally develop in the fed cash cattle market -- traders took one look at what the prices were of the cash market and opted to shoot the live cattle contracts mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. A light trade developed this morning in the North at $380, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Nebraska. Some Southern live cattle have traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. From a sheerly fundamental aspect, the power in this week's fed cash cattle market far outweighs the bearish note of the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices, which is why traders are willing to propel the contracts higher.

It was another exhilarating day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded higher thanks to the continued support of strong market fundamentals, and the sheer willingness of traders to remain engaged in the marketplace. All throughout the week, the feeder cattle complex was well supported. Buyers have aggressively been procuring calves in auctions throughout the countryside, but upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher -- the feeder cattle complex grabbed another bullish factor and opted to continue to trade higher.

The lean hog complex traded lower into Friday's close as pork cutout values were slightly lower and there simply isn't enough trader support to push the contracts higher at this point. It's likely that the market continues to trade in this sluggish manner into early next week.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/11151446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed down 3 1/4 cents and December corn was down 4 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 8 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed down 10 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 9 1/2 cents, September&nbsp; Minneapolis wheat was down 18 cents.For the week:September corn closed down 24 1/4 cents and December corn was down 24 3/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 52 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 42 cents. September KC wheat closed down 13 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 7 cents and September Minneapolis wheat was down 32 cents.The market feature for Friday was the release of the July WASDE and Crop Production report from USDA. The report came in mostly in line with trader and analyst expectations with a few curveballs from the government. Overall, despite some of the estimates certainly having a bullish twist, market reaction was one of intense skepticism especially regarding the lower production estimates from USDA for the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops amid the rainy forecast for mid to late June. Moving forward, it will be a very interesting dynamic to watch the ongoing bearish weather trade go up against long-term support as row crops trade among and in a few instances beyond their 2025 lows into mid-summer.LIVESTOCK:What a day, what a day, what a day! The live cattle complex, upon seeing some light trade finally develop in the fed cash cattle market -- traders took one look at what the prices were of the cash market and opted to shoot the live cattle contracts mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. A light trade developed this morning in the North at $380, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average in Nebraska. Some Southern live cattle have traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00 to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. From a sheerly fundamental aspect, the power in this week's fed cash cattle market far outweighs the bearish note of the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices, which is why traders are willing to propel the contracts higher. It was another exhilarating day for the feeder cattle complex as the market traded higher thanks to the continued support of strong market fundamentals, and the sheer willingness of traders to remain engaged in the marketplace. All throughout the week, the feeder cattle complex was well supported. Buyers have aggressively been procuring calves in auctions throughout the countryside, but upon seeing the fed cash cattle market trade higher -- the feeder cattle complex grabbed another bullish factor and opted to continue to trade higher.The lean hog complex traded lower into Friday's close as pork cutout values were slightly lower and there simply isn't enough trader support to push the contracts higher at this point. It's likely that the market continues to trade in this sluggish manner into early next week.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/11151446/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. 

This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.

USDA says per capita total U.S. food spending increased 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024, slightly outpacing the 2.3 percent increase in food prices during the same period. That showed a stronger demand for food despite higher prices. However, national trends in sales mask uneven growth across multiple U.S. states. Three states showed a decrease in per capita food sales, with New Hampshire dropping the most at two percent in 2024. This was driven by a 6.6 percent increase in sales at grocery stores, supercenters, and other food-at-home stores. West Virginia and Kansas were the only other states where total per capita food sales declined, dropping by one percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Per capita food sales increased the most in Washington, D.C., rising ten percent, and were driven by food away from home sales. Other states with high growth included New York at 5.9 percent and California at 5.5 percent.-NAFB

Food spending increases from 2023-2024

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. 

In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action.

A new case of New World screwworm appeared this week, only 160 miles from the Mexico-U.S. border. USDA had previously announced a risk-based phased-in port reopening strategy for cattle, bison, and equine from Mexico that began on July 7. The new case raises significant concerns in the U.S. and compromises the outlined port reopening schedule for five ports in the southern U.S. In order to protect American livestock and the nation’s food supply, Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately. “The U.S. promised to be vigilant, and after detecting the new case, we are pausing the planned port reopenings to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico,” Rollins said. “We must see progress in multiple Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the southern border.” Aggressive USDA staff monitoring allowed the U.S. to take quick action.-NAFB

Rollins shuts down southern ports again

September corn closed unchanged and December corn was up 1 cent. August soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 7 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cent.

It was another session featuring futures squaring ahead of Friday's USDA release with row crop markets holding even to slightly higher for the most part. Wheat markets led the way higher, showing some life on the Kansas City board following Wednesday's reversal near contract lows. The thing most traders are anticipating on Friday's USDA release is how traders will react if adjustments are in fact at least temporarily bullish in direction. Given that weather and thus far strong crop conditions have really been the sole focus of bearish traders through the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Friday's estimates are taken with a grain of salt.

The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded mixed into Thursday's close, seeming to again hold its breath until there's an understanding of the direction fed cash cattle prices are going to trade this week. A few bids are on the table at mostly $223 in the South, but a regional packer is currently bidding up to $227. But with asking prices firm in the South at $228 to $230, still no cattle have traded yet. And the North remains incredibly quiet with no bids or asking prices having been posted just yet. Upon seeing that boxed beef prices are lower again today, it's safe to say that the seasonal downward trend of the third quarter for boxed beef prices has been set into motion.

With the USDA's updated announcement that the US border is again closed to Mexican imports, the feeder cattle complex again gained another leg up and traders are continuing to support its higher trend. We know that domestic supplies are tight, and buyer demand remains red hot, which is why traders remain confident in continuing to push the contracts higher.

Pork cutout values may be higher, but the lean hog complex went lower in part due to the slight downturn of exports having a negative impact on trader's minds as the contracts traded fully lower into Thursday's close. The carcass price was realistically able to print higher this morning because of the heavy lifting done by the belly which jumped $4.51 higher, and the ham which jumped $4.24.

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/10152320/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

By: NATHAN STUEDLEGRAINS:September corn closed unchanged and December corn was up 1 cent. August soybeans closed up 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were up 6 1/2 cents. September KC wheat closed up 10 3/4 cents, September Chicago wheat was up 7 1/2 cents, September Minneapolis wheat was up 1/4 cent.It was another session featuring futures squaring ahead of Friday's USDA release with row crop markets holding even to slightly higher for the most part. Wheat markets led the way higher, showing some life on the Kansas City board following Wednesday's reversal near contract lows. The thing most traders are anticipating on Friday's USDA release is how traders will react if adjustments are in fact at least temporarily bullish in direction. Given that weather and thus far strong crop conditions have really been the sole focus of bearish traders through the past few weeks, it will be interesting to see if Friday's estimates are taken with a grain of salt.LIVESTOCK:The live cattle complex&nbsp;traded mixed into Thursday's close, seeming to again hold its breath until there's an understanding of the direction fed cash cattle prices are going to trade this week. A few bids are on the table at mostly $223 in the South, but a regional packer is currently bidding up to $227. But with asking prices firm in the South at $228 to $230, still no cattle have traded yet. And the North remains incredibly quiet with no bids or asking prices having been posted just yet. Upon seeing that boxed beef prices are lower again today, it's safe to say that the seasonal downward trend of the third quarter for boxed beef prices has been set into motion.With the USDA's updated announcement that the US border is again closed to Mexican imports, the feeder cattle complex again gained another leg up and traders are continuing to support its higher trend. We know that domestic supplies are tight, and buyer demand remains red hot, which is why traders remain confident in continuing to push the contracts higher.Pork cutout values may be higher, but the lean hog complex went lower in part due to the slight downturn of exports having a negative impact on trader's minds as the contracts traded fully lower into Thursday's close. The carcass price was realistically able to print higher this morning because of the heavy lifting done by the belly which jumped $4.51 higher, and the ham which jumped $4.24.Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/10152320/web-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> for audio

June runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 3.3 million acre-feet, 60 percent of the average. The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is below average. Mountain snowpack melted more rapidly than normal, and all reaches except the Sioux City reach experienced below normal precipitation during June,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “The June runoff was less than forecast, and dry conditions will continue in July.” 

The June 2025 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 19.1 million acre-feet, 74 percent of the average and slightly lower than last month’s forecast. System storage on July 1 was 52.1 million acre-feet, four million below the top of the carryover multiple-use zone. The monthly study indicates that the winter release from Gavins Point will likely be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second. 

June runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 3.3 million acre-feet, 60 percent of the average. The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City is below average. Mountain snowpack melted more rapidly than normal, and all reaches except the Sioux City reach experienced below normal precipitation during June,” said John Remus of the Army Corps of Engineers. “The June runoff was less than forecast, and dry conditions will continue in July.” The June 2025 runoff forecast above Sioux City is 19.1 million acre-feet, 74 percent of the average and slightly lower than last month’s forecast. System storage on July 1 was 52.1 million acre-feet, four million below the top of the carryover multiple-use zone. The monthly study indicates that the winter release from Gavins Point will likely be at the minimum rate of 12,000 cubic feet per second. -NAFB

June Missouri River runoff far below average

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade has been on the road and holding events called Tariff Town Halls in half a dozen states. The events all brought together farmers, business leaders, economists, and trade experts to spotlight how newly-imposed tariffs are already harming the communities that grow and make American-made products that power local economies and are in demand around the world. At each stop, farmers and experts shared new data, on-the-ground stories, and growing urgency. 

Just days before the Fourth of July, agricultural leaders at a town hall in Little Rock, Arkansas put it bluntly: “I’ll tell you this much as a producer. Between 20 and 30 percent of the producers in the United States would be out if this doesn’t change between now and December.” On a per-state basis, Texas businesses paid $934 million more in tariff costs. North Carolina also saw a 190 percent spike in its tariff costs. 

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade has been on the road and holding events called Tariff Town Halls in half a dozen states. The events all brought together farmers, business leaders, economists, and trade experts to spotlight how newly-imposed tariffs are already harming the communities that grow and make American-made products that power local economies and are in demand around the world. At each stop, farmers and experts shared new data, on-the-ground stories, and growing urgency. Just days before the Fourth of July, agricultural leaders at a town hall in Little Rock, Arkansas put it bluntly: “I’ll tell you this much as a producer. Between 20 and 30 percent of the producers in the United States would be out if this doesn’t change between now and December.” On a per-state basis, Texas businesses paid $934 million more in tariff costs. North Carolina also saw a 190 percent spike in its tariff costs. -NAFB

Farmers for Free Trade sounding economic alarm regarding tariffs

Click <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/09142119/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to audio

September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 12 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 3/4 cents.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 97.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141.0 points at 44,653.0. August gold is up $3.80 at $3,320.70, September silver is down $0.16 at $36.59 and September copper is down $0.1520. August crude oil is up $0.03 at $68.36, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0330, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0029 and August natural gas is down $0.131.

September corn futures traded 1 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday to $3.99 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.15 1/2. It was a marginal recovery for corn on Wednesday as prices managed to bounce of daily lows, but September futures failed to regain support above $4.00 and December remained below former support near $4.20 as traders clearly remain tentative about exiting short positions ahead of the USDA report Friday, but more importantly ahead of what remains a friendly weather outlook for corn pollination through the middle part of July.

The Energy Information Administration released their weekly Petroleum Status report early Wednesday, pegging ethanol production in the U.S. at 1.085 million barrels per day (mbpd), snapping a three-week decline. Ethanol production through the first few days of July remains a steady 3.7% ahead of the 2023-24 corn marketing year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24 million barrels, down slightly from the previous week, but up 1.5% from the same period in 2024. Ahead of the USDA report on Friday, I am still forecasting slightly less corn used for ethanol in 2024-25 than USDA, at 5.450 billion bushels (bb) versus USDA at 5.5 bb. However, it must be mentioned that there is wide variability in ethanol production and subsequent corn usage through July and August historically, so I would not be surprised to see USDA leave their estimate unchanged in Friday's release.

Despite the clear pricing in of a higher than trend yield for 2025, it is unlikely given the history of the July WASDE that USDA will change the corn yield on Friday. That along with slightly less acreage thanks to the update at the end of June, should leave 2025 production less than previously estimated. The biggest changes to the balance sheet will come from the 2024-25 ending stocks, of which I remain nervous that increases may come eventually due to less feed, residual and ethanol usage than currently being forecasted. The good news is that potential for increased exports still remains, which should partially offset any reductions to other categories either in Friday's report or subsequent reports. Still, the bottom line is that for Friday, new crop ending stocks are expected to be estimated at quite a bit lower than in the July 2024 WASDE report.

For corn technicals, the relative strength index on December corn is showing the potential for a diverging bottom pattern, essentially meaning the drop in prices this week has less momentum than the previous drop seen over late June. This could be a signal that traders are growing satisfied with their risk profile and heavy short positions heading into the crucial weather period for corn pollination. Immediate support is seen just below $4.10 for December futures, while the bullish target remains to reclaim support above $4.20.

The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.85. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.86.

August soybeans fell another 12 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.09. New-crop November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents to $10.07 1/4. The August soybean contract has given up 46 cents of value through the trading week thus far as traders are apparently seeing enough reason in the good weather to remove risk premium from the market despite the relatively low acreage for soybeans in the U.S. as compared to last year. Concern over export demand next year is certainly playing a role in the bearish price action this week.

For Friday's WASDE, the average trade estimate for 2024-25 soybean ending stocks is for a slight increase to 358 million bushels (mb). I am torn at this point between the surprisingly high June 1 stocks of 1.008 bb, and ahead of pace crush and exports. It would appear if there were a surprising drop in demand, it is coming from the residual category currently. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks hold near 350 mb in Friday's report. As for new crop, I find it also unlikely that we will see any change to the yield, so most likely any changes to 2025-26 carry out will be a result of the aforementioned adjustments to beginning stocks (2024-25 ending stocks) for the marketing year. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday is for 304 mb of soybean ending stocks for 2025-26, as compared to the estimate in 2024 of 435 mb.

For soybean technicals, November futures broke support at $10.15 en route to the lowest close for the contract since April 10. $10.00 is likely the next round of support above the tariff induced plunge to $9.80 seen in early April.

The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.68. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 53 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.56.

Wheat futures were mixed to slightly higher on Wednesday with September Kansas City prices trading 1 1/2 cents higher to $5.24. Chicago futures were fractionally lower on their September contract, while MIAX Minneapolis September futures traded 1 3/4 cents higher.

Friday's WASDE report will include USDA production estimates for the winter wheat crop, which is over 50% harvested as of the beginning of the week. The Dow Jones survey of analysts is on average calling for a decrease in production as compared to the June WASDE and NASS Crop Production reports. Assuming the June 1 stocks estimate released on the June 30 of 851 mb is accurate, the expectation is that 2025-26 wheat stocks will also decrease modestly with the average trade estimate calling for a 5 mb decline to 893 mb.

On the world stage, I will be interested to see how USDA sees China's winter wheat crop after a spring full of speculation regarding the drought conditions experienced in several key growing regions in northeast China. Beyond that, Russia and the EU will also be of key interest to traders, given the reversal in opinions regarding the Russian crop after a very poor start to the growing season, thanks in large part to timely rains this spring.

By MATT PIKEClick <a href="https://dehayf5mhw1h7.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/356/2025/07/09142119/30001-closing-markets.mp3">HERE</a> to listen to audioGENERAL COMMENTS:September corn closed up 1 1/4 cents and December corn was up 1 1/4 cents. August soybeans closed down 12 1/4 cents and November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents. September KC wheat closed up 1 1/2 cents, September Chicago wheat was down 3/4 cents, September MIAX Minneapolis wheat was up 1 3/4 cents.The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.01 at 97.52. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 141.0 points at 44,653.0. August gold is up $3.80 at $3,320.70, September silver is down $0.16 at $36.59 and September copper is down $0.1520. August crude oil is up $0.03 at $68.36, August ultra-low sulfur diesel is down $0.0330, August RBOB gasoline is up $0.0029 and August natural gas is down $0.131.CORN:September corn futures traded 1 1/4 cents higher on Wednesday to $3.99 1/4. New-crop December futures were up 1 1/4 cents to $4.15 1/2. It was a marginal recovery for corn on Wednesday as prices managed to bounce of daily lows, but September futures failed to regain support above $4.00 and December remained below former support near $4.20 as traders clearly remain tentative about exiting short positions ahead of the USDA report Friday, but more importantly ahead of what remains a friendly weather outlook for corn pollination through the middle part of July.The Energy Information Administration released their weekly Petroleum Status report early Wednesday, pegging ethanol production in the U.S. at 1.085 million barrels per day (mbpd), snapping a three-week decline. Ethanol production through the first few days of July remains a steady 3.7% ahead of the 2023-24 corn marketing year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24 million barrels, down slightly from the previous week, but up 1.5% from the same period in 2024. Ahead of the USDA report on Friday, I am still forecasting slightly less corn used for ethanol in 2024-25 than USDA, at 5.450 billion bushels (bb) versus USDA at 5.5 bb. However, it must be mentioned that there is wide variability in ethanol production and subsequent corn usage through July and August historically, so I would not be surprised to see USDA leave their estimate unchanged in Friday's release.Despite the clear pricing in of a higher than trend yield for 2025, it is unlikely given the history of the July WASDE that USDA will change the corn yield on Friday. That along with slightly less acreage thanks to the update at the end of June, should leave 2025 production less than previously estimated. The biggest changes to the balance sheet will come from the 2024-25 ending stocks, of which I remain nervous that increases may come eventually due to less feed, residual and ethanol usage than currently being forecasted. The good news is that potential for increased exports still remains, which should partially offset any reductions to other categories either in Friday's report or subsequent reports. Still, the bottom line is that for Friday, new crop ending stocks are expected to be estimated at quite a bit lower than in the July 2024 WASDE report.For corn technicals, the relative strength index on December corn is showing the potential for a diverging bottom pattern, essentially meaning the drop in prices this week has less momentum than the previous drop seen over late June. This could be a signal that traders are growing satisfied with their risk profile and heavy short positions heading into the crucial weather period for corn pollination. Immediate support is seen just below $4.10 for December futures, while the bullish target remains to reclaim support above $4.20.The DTN National Corn Index finished Tuesday at $3.85. Wednesday's futures close and implied corn basis of 13 cents under the September board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $3.86.SOYBEANS:August soybeans fell another 12 1/4 cents on Wednesday to $10.09. New-crop November soybeans were down 10 1/4 cents to $10.07 1/4. The August soybean contract has given up 46 cents of value through the trading week thus far as traders are apparently seeing enough reason in the good weather to remove risk premium from the market despite the relatively low acreage for soybeans in the U.S. as compared to last year. Concern over export demand next year is certainly playing a role in the bearish price action this week.For Friday's WASDE, the average trade estimate for 2024-25 soybean ending stocks is for a slight increase to 358 million bushels (mb). I am torn at this point between the surprisingly high June 1 stocks of 1.008 bb, and ahead of pace crush and exports. It would appear if there were a surprising drop in demand, it is coming from the residual category currently. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks hold near 350 mb in Friday's report. As for new crop, I find it also unlikely that we will see any change to the yield, so most likely any changes to 2025-26 carry out will be a result of the aforementioned adjustments to beginning stocks (2024-25 ending stocks) for the marketing year. The average trade estimate ahead of Friday is for 304 mb of soybean ending stocks for 2025-26, as compared to the estimate in 2024 of 435 mb.For soybean technicals, November futures broke support at $10.15 en route to the lowest close for the contract since April 10. $10.00 is likely the next round of support above the tariff induced plunge to $9.80 seen in early April.The DTN National Soybean Index finished Tuesday at $9.68. Wednesday's futures close and implied soybean basis of 53 cents under the August board would indicate the index on Wednesday afternoon to be near $9.56.WHEAT:Wheat futures were mixed to slightly higher on Wednesday with September Kansas City prices trading 1 1/2 cents higher to $5.24. Chicago futures were fractionally lower on their September contract, while MIAX Minneapolis September futures traded 1 3/4 cents higher.Friday's WASDE report will include USDA production estimates for the winter wheat crop, which is over 50% harvested as of the beginning of the week. The Dow Jones survey of analysts is on average calling for a decrease in production as compared to the June WASDE and NASS Crop Production reports. Assuming the June 1 stocks estimate released on the June 30 of 851 mb is accurate, the expectation is that 2025-26 wheat stocks will also decrease modestly with the average trade estimate calling for a 5 mb decline to 893 mb.On the world stage, I will be interested to see how USDA sees China's winter wheat crop after a spring full of speculation regarding the drought conditions experienced in several key growing regions in northeast China. Beyond that, Russia and the EU will also be of key interest to traders, given the reversal in opinions regarding the Russian crop after a very poor start to the growing season, thanks in large part to timely rains this spring.